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Author Topic: Canon MF coming?  (Read 83793 times)
Lester
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« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2006, 11:12:05 PM »
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Maybe, Canon is not looking at the MF 645 chip, because it is already been done by other companies. What left is the RZ and the Fuji 680, why fellow if they can produce a 6x7 chip. Just look at all those RZ and Fuji 680 out there. That what I would do, since Canon makes their own chip.
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narikin
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2006, 10:59:59 AM »
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Maybe, Canon is not looking at the MF 645 chip, because it is already been done by other companies. What left is the RZ and the Fuji 680, why fellow if they can produce a 6x7 chip. Just look at all those RZ and Fuji 680 out there. That what I would do, since Canon makes their own chip.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65379\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

wha?

Canon will make a ground up system - it certainly wont want to be at the mercy of any camera company, with their outdated hardware. They may go ZD route (and get it right this time) with an integrated MF body plus back option.

remember people it doesnt have to be 645 - it can be any format Canon wants, within reason.

nobody disputes that sensors can get bigger/ finer and finer, but the 35mm lenses (even L's) just cant resolve any more detail. a 30Mp sensor even with the best optics is just going to be a finer grid on the same resolution image. To truly get more detail in the file, they MUST go to a bigger sensor size, with lenses to match.

Canon are not stupid, they know this. which is why I think its on the cards.
yes it's a smaller market than 1D's, 5D's, etc, but a very lucrative one, high end pros are wealthy and invest big $, plus its wide open globally, ready to be reeled in.

Personally I cant wait.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2006, 11:00:55 AM by narikin » Logged
RolandBaker
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« Reply #22 on: May 14, 2006, 01:17:27 PM »
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The original question was will “Canon bring out a MF digital at Photokina.” That is mere four months from now. Canon’s release schedule has already been well documented and they’ve been right on schedule with updates to each line: 30D, Rebel, 1D2n and 1Ds2 to date. They will be due for an update to the 1Ds2 by Photokina so we all expect a replacement. Given the current trajectory of the upgrades it is very probable they will release a 22-24MP 35mm 1DsIII. Ask yourself these questions: is the current 1Ds2 the pinnacle of the 1Ds line?  Would the current L lens line-up not benefit from at least one more major upgrade, including MP count and color bit depth in the 1Ds series? And lastly wouldn’t almost every current owner of a 1Ds2 and aspiring 1Ds series buying who could afford it buy a 1DsIII? I think there is motive, timing issues and a substantial need for the 35mm 1DsIII to come out right around Photokina and the market for it would be substantial. A lot of people like me with a huge investment in L glass would welcome just that extra little bit from a 22-24MP 1DsIII with 16-bit color and yes, some of it would be wasted but it would be plenty worth the money. I would buy it in a minute. I’d still keep my Hassy H series camera and lenses to supplement it. But I’d buy the 1DsIII in a minute. So would most of you.

So then why would Canon steal the thunder from what is probably going to be its ultimate pro solution to date, the 1DsIII, by releasing at the same time a new 1MF medium format camera with a whole new line-up of lenses? Could they even pull all that off so soon at the same time they’re finishing up Digic III and new 22-24MP sensor, 16-bit color technology, possibly a cropping technology a la D2X and possibly some new lenses like a 50 L as expected and probably some point-and-shoots and some consumer zooms, maybe even a new Rebel? I don’t see anything in Canon public financial statements or investors relations financial statements that shows they are ramping up what would be a *MASSIVE* investment right now in a whole new medium format body and an *entire new medium format lens family.* So to me the theory doesn’t hold any water.

Now Photokina 2008? 2010? Maybe… That might make more sense.

Again – all pure speculation on my part. I don’t have any insider information and my opinion is worth about as much as bar room banter. Maybe less…
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Best regards,

Roland
alainbriot
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« Reply #23 on: May 14, 2006, 02:45:52 PM »
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At some point we are bound to see some competition on the digital medium format front and that will result in more choice and lower prices (hopefully).  Mamiya was our best hope, but it seems they went south at this time.  Canon may be the next in line. I'm hopeful but careful at the same time because it would be the first time that a 35mm camera company offers a medium format camera.  I may be wrong, and if so feel free to set me straight.  I haven't looked back at the history of 35mm camera manufacturers lately ;- )

Regards,

Alain
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Alain Briot
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Kenneth Sky
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« Reply #24 on: May 14, 2006, 02:57:29 PM »
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Sorry Alain, Pentax has been there.
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2006, 05:11:21 PM »
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The original question was will “Canon bring out a MF digital at Photokina.” That is mere four months from now. Canon’s release schedule has already been well documented and they’ve been right on schedule with updates to each line: 30D, Rebel, 1D2n and 1Ds2 to date. They will be due for an update to the 1Ds2 by Photokina so we all expect a replacement. Given the current trajectory of the upgrades it is very probable they will release a 22-24MP 35mm 1DsIII.[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65435\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Without ruling out a possible MF move, I think that Canon shoudl better work on the hardware of their 1d series.

In my view, the priority for them is to stay ahead of Nikon, and the d2x series created a significant lead for Nikon in most field but sensor, my view is that Canon will release a 2ds that will have improved ergonomics, be lighter and feature a better AF in low light,... that would help a lot more Canon photographers out there a lot more than many more MPs... there will be MPs also of course...

Regards,
Bernard
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meierruedi
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« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2006, 02:04:38 AM »
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Apparently we'll see a 20MP Canon at Photokina.
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eronald
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« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2006, 07:54:54 AM »
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Without ruling out a possible MF move, I think that Canon shoudl better work on the hardware of their 1d series.

In my view, the priority for them is to stay ahead of Nikon, and the d2x series created a significant lead for Nikon in most field but sensor, my view is that Canon will release a 2ds that will have improved ergonomics, be lighter and feature a better AF in low light,... that would help a lot more Canon photographers out there a lot more than many more MPs... there will be MPs also of course...

Regards,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65455\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I expect a completely redesigned Canon EOS1 series will emerge this year. As for image quality, I must say I'm extremely sceptical, the 1DII and 1DsII have been steps back from the 1Ds. It's not that they can't do it, it's that  Canon doesn't seem to understand what the upmarket crowd wants in terms of image quality for the extra $4K that they pay when they buy a 1DsX instead of a 1DX body.

Edmund
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« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2006, 08:05:58 AM »
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"Given the current trajectory"... What?  Where are you getting your logic and your mathematics?  The most recent evidence that might populate data on any trajectory is that MP is not increasing.  Canon didn't do it on the 1D model, and they didn't do it on the 30D.  Nearly all professional market watchers are saying that the MP race is over. What possible reason would Canon have to produce something with more than 16mp?  The market for more than 16mp is tiny (most of the posts say they don't need more than 16mp), they could only do so at great cost, they have NO competition even at 16mp, and increases above 16mp would only more clearly point out the deficiencies in their lenses (as others have pointed out, their lenses really can't handle 16mp - let alone any more)  The lenses certainly could use an upgrade but the cost would be enormous and the final cost to the customer of the lenses would necessarily be an order of magnitude higher than the current L lenses, and the market would be small -- not a viable market strategy and one that would leave Canon in a lot of red ink.  They are making money hand over fist right now with no viable competiton for the 1Ds on the horizon.  Milk the cash cow.  It is just not a sensible business decision for Canon right now.

Of course it has nothing to do with the the 1DsMkII being the "pinnacle" of the line.  They will always introduce newer and better cameras -- just like in the film days.  There are things that can be improved about the 1Ds without having to go higher in pixel count -- as others have pointed out color is a big issue, DR is another, ergonomics is yet another.  There are lots of avenues for improvement -- and improvements alopng these lines would yield far greater benefits to the users (at much lower investment) than just another mindless, uneccessary and costly increase in MP.


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The original question was will “Canon bring out a MF digital at Photokina.” That is mere four months from now. Canon’s release schedule has already been well documented and they’ve been right on schedule with updates to each line: 30D, Rebel, 1D2n and 1Ds2 to date. They will be due for an update to the 1Ds2 by Photokina so we all expect a replacement. Given the current trajectory of the upgrades it is very probable they will release a 22-24MP 35mm 1DsIII. Ask yourself these questions: is the current 1Ds2 the pinnacle of the 1Ds line?  Would the current L lens line-up not benefit from at least one more major upgrade, including MP count and color bit depth in the 1Ds series? And lastly wouldn’t almost every current owner of a 1Ds2 and aspiring 1Ds series buying who could afford it buy a 1DsIII? I think there is motive, timing issues and a substantial need for the 35mm 1DsIII to come out right around Photokina and the market for it would be substantial. A lot of people like me with a huge investment in L glass would welcome just that extra little bit from a 22-24MP 1DsIII with 16-bit color and yes, some of it would be wasted but it would be plenty worth the money. I would buy it in a minute. I’d still keep my Hassy H series camera and lenses to supplement it. But I’d buy the 1DsIII in a minute. So would most of you.


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« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2006, 08:19:18 AM »
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What will come out in September is the tentatively titled 1Ds MIII.  It will have 20 megapixels.  [a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65129\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

And where did this blinding insight come from?  Is this more baseless speculation based on some perceived notion of some endless straight-line technology trajectory reching ever higher for ever and ever?  (Hey, in 2 more years we'll be at 30mp or more!  What a wonderful limitless world we live in!)  Or did a little Canon birdie whisper it in your ear?  Let's get back to reality.  There is no evidence that Canon is going to build a body with more than 16mp right now and there is no real business basis for Canon to do so.  Anyone who thinks they have one is not looking at the facts and only creating a story to rationalize their own fantasies.

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It will also have a 3" screen!  So the body will handle every from the 1D Mark II all the way beyond the 1Ds Mark II.  An all in one camera.[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65129\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

This makes much more sense and seems to be the concensus speculation.  These are the types of developments and improvements that make sense from Canon's business and production perspective.
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #30 on: May 15, 2006, 08:49:35 AM »
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"Given the current trajectory"... What?  Where are you getting your logic and your mathematics?  The most recent evidence that might populate data on any trajectory is that MP is not increasing.  Canon didn't do it on the 1D model, and they didn't do it on the 30D.  Nearly all professional market watchers are saying that the MP race is over. What possible reason would Canon have to produce something with more than 16mp?  The market for more than 16mp is tiny (most of the posts say they don't need more than 16mp), they could only do so at great cost, they have NO competition even at 16mp,   [a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65512\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

They have no competition in pixel count, but recent comparisions have shown once more that the d2x is already very close at base ISO (if not better).

They know that Nikon will come up with something else, or if Nikon doesn't then Fuji will, and if Fuji does't, then it will be Pentax, or else Sony,... it might not be in 2006, but it will be in 2007, and is Canon going to take the risk to be overtaken middel of next year with another 1.5 year until the next upgrade? I don't think so.

Canon's policy has been to put themselves in a position where it is easy to claim that they are the best, why would they want to change that in their next flagship camera?

If a dying company like Mamiya managed to release a completely new 22 MP body at a price only 40% higher than that of the 1ds2, who knows what a healthy giant willing to quick ass could do next based on existing designs?

Regards,
Bernard
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« Reply #31 on: May 15, 2006, 09:20:41 AM »
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They have no competition in pixel count, but recent comparisions have shown once more that the d2x is already very close at base ISO (if not better).

They know that Nikon will come up with something else, or if Nikon doesn't then Fuji will, and if Fuji does't, then it will be Pentax, or else Sony,... it might not be in 2006, but it will be in 2007, and is Canon going to take the risk to be overtaken middel of next year with another 1.5 year until the next upgrade? I don't think so.

If a dying company like Mamiya managed to release a completely new 22 MP body at a price only 40% higher than that of the 1ds2, who knows what a healthy giant willing to quick ass could do next based on existing designs?
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65520\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Canon is a healthy company (not quite a giant) and they would like to stay that way.  There is still no competition for them at 16mp and NO evidence that anyone is planning anything to rival it anytime soon.  If the D2X seems "close" to the 1Ds MkII, it still isn't at the 1Ds' level and if Canon is losing sales to the D2X it is not losing those sales because of a mp deficency so merely adding more mp (and the associated cost) isn't going help it compete better with the D2X.  The other (non-mp) image quality and operational improvements suggested will.   The 22mp Mamyia ZD is NOT a competitor to the 1Ds -- different markets and different stengths.  No one is going to dump their 1DsMkII for a ZD anytime soon.  Canon needs to continue to build up their cash stockpile now for the time when they really get competition on a mp basis for their flagship model -- 3 or 4 years down the road -- and at that point they will really need to decide whether a still  higher mp is worthwhile in itself or just a fool's game.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2006, 09:21:24 AM by Let Biogons be Biogons » Logged
BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #32 on: May 15, 2006, 09:39:12 AM »
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Let's get back to this post in 4 months from now will we?

Cheers,
Bernard
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« Reply #33 on: May 15, 2006, 10:41:23 AM »
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Yes.  I might actually try to go to Photokina this year.  It should be a very interesting show this year.
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alainbriot
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« Reply #34 on: May 15, 2006, 01:10:15 PM »
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Sorry Alain, Pentax has been there.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65445\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Good point. So there might be more hope than I thought.  After all, since it apears that the ranks of  traditional medium format companies are thinning out, it may be logical that the space left vacant will be filled by 35mm companies.

Alain
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bob mccarthy
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« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2006, 01:37:19 PM »
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Concidering the cost of entering the market, from engineering bodies, to complete optics and assessories systems, and entering a category thats shrinking rapidly over the past 5 years, I just don't see it happening.

I doubt Canon even acknowledges Hasselblad exists other than in a historical sense. They already produce cameras that have completely devastated the MF category. Do they really want large format quality also (MF digital).

I doubt it. And I think large format film is healthy for years to come. The economics are far from digital being competitive. Beside scanning backs with a view camera are the top of the mountain, especially when scanning speed improves from the present technology

bob
« Last Edit: May 15, 2006, 03:36:59 PM by bob mccarthy » Logged
Ben Rubinstein
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« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2006, 02:29:35 PM »
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And what if the 1Ds mkIII is still 14 bit.....
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Dennishh
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« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2006, 05:40:18 PM »
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What if it's 14 bit 24mp with in camera raw compositing of 3 or more frames. I heard rumours that the next camera is over 22mp and under $6000.00 US. If it has the newly designed ir sensor layer and the next generation digic 3 processor it could me major.
Dennis
« Last Edit: May 15, 2006, 05:40:56 PM by Dennishh » Logged
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« Reply #38 on: May 15, 2006, 09:48:35 PM »
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I heard rumours that the next camera is over 22mp and under $6000.00 US.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65590\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
That's all it is, just rumours -- baseless rumous started by the uninformed fantisizing about what could be next.  The way these rumous have been pedaled, hyped-up and spread around, at so many of these "forums" (Canon is, as we have come to know, Lord, God, King), there will alot of disappointed people come September.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2006, 09:48:54 PM by Let Biogons be Biogons » Logged
BJL
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« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2006, 11:25:11 AM »
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To keep things on topic, the point is that a 20Mp sensor even with new ultra L lenses is at the absolute limit of 35mm lens optical resolution. Canon are not stupid, and can see where its headed - they *have* to produce an MF (larger sensor) solution if they want to go beyond 20Mp in any meaningful way.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=65143\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Success does not require success in every niche, including extremely small high end ones. Instead, some niches are way too small for an 800lb gorilla to bother with, even if such a niche keeps a few far smaller operations like Hasselblad-Imacon, Mamiya/Cosmo and Rollei going --- just barely. Adding MF would at best add about an extra 0.1% share of the DSLR market to the 50-60% share that Canon has already. This is like saying that survival for Toyota, GM, or Ford requires them to start competing in the sector now dominated by the likes of Ferrari, Lamborghini, Bugatti or Rolls-Royce.

Canon apparently realized this decades ago when it abandoned medium format (TLR's) to concentrate on the smaller and vastly more profitable 35mm format, and I see no reason that it would reverse direction now, with MF having a vastly smaller market share and far less profit potential than it did when Canon left it.

The argument that Canon needs to go to new, larger format lenses in order to get beyond lens resolution limits of 35mm format makes no sense to me: Canon's lenses had those same resolution limits with film, and it was never a reason for canon to upsize to MF then, so why would it be now?


In other words, where is the evidence that more than a tiny fraction of camera buyers want more  resolution than Canon's current lenses can give them enough to bear the burdens of a larger format?
« Last Edit: May 17, 2006, 11:32:53 AM by BJL » Logged
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