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Author Topic: pentax  (Read 58269 times)
BJL
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« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2007, 12:14:40 PM »
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i think you guys are dreaming....the ZD (body) is around 12000 with a 22mpix 12bit (if larger) chip....anything under 15000 would be very good for the pentax....
we will see...
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As I mention several times above, costs are related to sensor size more than to pixel count (10MP digicam sensors cost less than 6MP DSLR sensors!), so the 33x44 sensor used by Pentax should allow the price to be less than the ZD with its larger 36x48 sensor.
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John_Black
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« Reply #41 on: February 25, 2007, 01:25:29 PM »
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Bernard, I agree that sensor size plays into the price, but $9,999 is a stretch for me.  A $9,999 price would be a huge a psychological coup on Pentax's part.  Digital medium format & 31 MP for under $10k would make for a great marketing splash.  Several other factors influencing 645D price are:

1)  When will it be released?  If it turns out to be late Fall or early Winter, then 31 MP won't be as expensive then as it is today.

2)  How many chips is Pentax buying?  A production run of 1,000 vs 25,000 will have a different cost base too.

3)  What's coming from Phase, Aptus, etc.?  Do they have cheaper backs in the works or more MP?  Pentax certainly knows what Dalsa & Kodak sensors are planned, so they can make some good guesses about their competition.

Canon lowered the price on the 1D3 to $3999, so if the 1Ds3 is 22 MP, 14-bits, etc., etc., and around $7299 (instead of the usual $8k when first announced), then that makes it harder for Pentax and Mamiya.  I think the 1Ds2/1Ds3 is a direct competitor to the all-in-one ZD and 645D.

Two people at MAC Group have said the ZD back and a US ZD are coming - they better get here fast before Canon redefines prices.  At 31 MP the 645D is somewhat above the turbelence, but no wholly immune.
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pss
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« Reply #42 on: February 25, 2007, 01:38:10 PM »
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As I mention several times above, costs are related to sensor size more than to pixel count (10MP digicam sensors cost less than 6MP DSLR sensors!), so the 33x44 sensor used by Pentax should allow the price to be less than the ZD with its larger 36x48 sensor.
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i know that size plays a major role...but there is no way that pentax will be allowed to sell the SAME chip (30+mpix, 16bit) with a camera attached for half of what phase and hass charge for their backs based on that same chip....kodak builds that chip and sells it t phase and hass and now pentax....you know they have a say in how much the final product is...they have to protect their customer...and themselves...they own leaf....

but there is much more to DMF then just the chip anyway...getting the information off the chip is not that easy.....phase, imacon and kodak all had the same chips, all had experience (and probably deeper pockets then pentax when it comes to MF development) and it took imacon a couple of years to catch up with phase (and IMO they still haven't) and kodak dropped out completely.....so for pentax to come along and make a camera is great for the market, but we will see how they can work the rest of the hardware (considerable) and the software (seems even harder).....

we have seen with the ZD how hard it is to enter the market....
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John_Black
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« Reply #43 on: February 25, 2007, 02:57:24 PM »
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I wouldn't say it is/was hard for Mamiya to enter the digital market, rather, MAC Group has stifled Mamiya in the US market.  This is a chicken & egg scenario.  If Mamiya had more revenue coming in from the ZD, then there would be more money to fund development, etc.  The ZD images look fine, it's not like they are disaster or something horrible.  A Phase P25 is $20k new, an Aptus 22 is $24k new - I think the US market could understand why a $12k MF dSLR doesn't match point for point for with other offerings costing 2x as much.  

Even if Mamiya lost money on the back (or ZD body), with cross marketing they could offset the loss with lens & accessory sales.  Mamiya could pump up the perceived value with a "Buy a back and great a free lens of your choice (from a list of course)" marketing campaign.  Get some new lenses out the door which are "optimized for digital".  And could you imagine what would happen if Mamiya pulled off a 1/250 or 1/500 flash sync in a AFDIII?  Nobody has 35mm dSLR type AF, so a new 7, 9 or 11 pt. AF system would generate some body sales too.

There are so, so many ways for Mamiya to garner some market share and make this work.  Changing lens coatings & improving AF are not huge investment dollars, but gear-heads go nuts for these things.  Dub it "medium format for the real world", price it competitively and steal market share.  In terms of US sales, I assign the blame to MAC Group - not Mamiya.  Just my $.02... and I'll put away the soap box now.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2007, 02:59:51 PM by John_Black » Logged

BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #44 on: February 25, 2007, 04:34:44 PM »
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i know that size plays a major role...but there is no way that pentax will be allowed to sell the SAME chip (30+mpix, 16bit) with a camera attached for half of what phase and hass charge for their backs based on that same chip....kodak builds that chip and sells it t phase and hass and now pentax....you know they have a say in how much the final product is...they have to protect their customer...and themselves...they own leaf....
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You might be correct, I am not aware of Kodak's business practises, but it would seem that at least Dalsa works differently since the ZD is about 1/3 the price of the equivalent Leaf in Japan... with the same sensor (I know that there are some small differences).

I am personnally not sure that Kodak would refuse to sell thousands of additional sensors to Pentax... can they really afford to?

Companies like Phase and Leaf have always stated that part of the price of their products is in the support structure. In other words, they claim that you pay for a full package and not just the hardware + software.

Pentax and Mamiya work with a different business model (basically sell and forget), will be able to make economies of scale, and are able (at least for Pentax) to re-use much of the IP already invested in APS DSLRs. Besides, selling digital MF is also a means for them to make money with lenses. Considering their culture, I believe that being able to maintain their activity in the lens business are some value for them.

All in all, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were able to sell at least twice cheaper than Leaf/Phase for a product based on the same sensor.

If things happen as I anticipate, we will then find out if the claims of Phase and Leaf in terms of what business model is suitable are real, or just a way to preserve larger margins...

One thing is sure, many of the photographer who did invest big money in Phase/Leaf products, but don't need/tap enough into the whole support structure put in place for them for big $ might not be super happy about these developments.

I feel that we are kind of back to the Nikon D1 days when Nikon proposed at 1/3 of the price something as good as the top Kodak DSLRs, aren't we?

Regards,
Bernard
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pss
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« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2007, 04:46:12 PM »
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You might be correct, I am not aware of Kodak's business practises, but it would seem that at least Dalsa works differently since the ZD is about 1/3 the price of the equivalent Leaf in Japan... with the same sensor (I know that there are some small differences).

I am personnally not sure that Kodak would refuse to sell thousands of additional sensors to Pentax... can they really afford to?

Companies like Phase and Leaf have always stated that part of the price of their products is in the support structure. In other words, they claim that you pay for a full package and not just the hardware + software.

Pentax and Mamiya work with a different business model (basically sell and forget), will be able to make economies of scale, and are able (at least for Pentax) to re-use much of the IP already invested in APS DSLRs. Besides, selling digital MF is also a means for them to make money with lenses. Considering their culture, I believe that being able to maintain their activity in the lens business are some value for them.

All in all, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were able to sell at least twice cheaper than Leaf/Phase for a product based on the same sensor.

If things happen as I anticipate, we will then find out if the claims of Phase and Leaf in terms of what business model is suitable are real, or just a way to preserve larger margins...

One thing is sure, many of the photographer who did invest big money in Phase/Leaf products, but don't need/tap enough into the whole support structure put in place for them for big $ might not be super happy about these developments.

I feel that we are kind of back to the Nikon D1 days when Nikon proposed at 1/3 of the price something as good as the top Kodak DSLRs, aren't we?

Regards,
Bernard
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you are right! if pentax can sell thousands of this camera, they can bring the price down and the price would have to be WAY down to sell thousands.....support is great, but if the pentax is 1/2 the price, just get 2 and always have a back-up!

don't forget that canon thought about dropping the price for the 1Ds to about 5000 when the 14n came out....they waited and saw that they did not have to.....no competition....

either way let's see if this camera will actually make it to the market....they announced one before wit 18mpix that never made it.....
and the ongoing ZD saga shows how hard it is.....
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #46 on: February 25, 2007, 06:41:43 PM »
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don't forget that canon thought about dropping the price for the 1Ds to about 5000 when the 14n came out....they waited and saw that they did not have to.....no competition....

either way let's see if this camera will actually make it to the market....they announced one before wit 18mpix that never made it.....
and the ongoing ZD saga shows how hard it is.....
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Yep, let's see what happens. All this is indeed pure speculation at this stage.

Cheers,
Bernard
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Bernd B.
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« Reply #47 on: July 16, 2007, 05:52:17 PM »
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Yep, let's see what happens. All this is indeed pure speculation at this stage.

Cheers,
Bernard
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On 10th of may this was published on a German website:

[a href=\"http://www.photoscala.de/node/3192]http://www.photoscala.de/node/3192[/url]

It says they stopped the development of the Pentax 645 digital to become more profitable to resist the Hoya merger.

Mid june I called a poor technician in Hamburg/Germany to tell him how disappointed I was about that after all my investments in Pentax equipment. His information: there are tests made in Japan with the 645 digital at the actual state of development. If the prototypes are seen as good, the camera will go into production. If they don`t meet expectations, any further development will be stopped and the project will be dropped.

I just hope the tests turn out good.
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tonypassera
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« Reply #48 on: July 16, 2007, 09:10:32 PM »
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On 10th of may this was published on a German website:

http://www.photoscala.de/node/3192

It says they stopped the development of the Pentax 645 digital to become more profitable to resist the Hoya merger.

Mid june I called a poor technician in Hamburg/Germany to tell him how disappointed I was about that after all my investments in Pentax equipment. His information: there are tests made in Japan with the 645 digital at the actual state of development. If the prototypes are seen as good, the camera will go into production. If they don`t meet expectations, any further development will be stopped and the project will be dropped.

I just hope the tests turn out good.
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Thanks for posting this.  I was wondering whether the 645 project might survive
the Hoya takeover.   I'm glad to hear that there's at least a chance of this.
I've held onto my Pentax 645 gear hoping for a 645D.  While I also have a
Contax 645, I much prefer the Pentax for nature work because of its small
size and weight.

Tony
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Bernd B.
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« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2007, 01:31:56 AM »
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Thanks for posting this.  I was wondering whether the 645 project might survive
the Hoya takeover.   I'm glad to hear that there's at least a chance of this.
I've held onto my Pentax 645 gear hoping for a 645D.  While I also have a
Contax 645, I much prefer the Pentax for nature work because of its small
size and weight.

Tony
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I´d like to see (and probably buy!) a Pentax 645D, too, because I could use my existing lenses.

But as we see it from the Mamiya ZD and ZD back, our expectations shoulnd´t be too high. Even if the camera might share the sensor of the H3D31 and P30, the quality of this first attempt will not be the same. Companies have to make their experiences and grow with each new generation of camera.

Wide angle capabilities of the system would be very limited with a 35mm on a 33x44mm sensor. There would be an immediate need for at least a 28mm.

I would also hope, I could use my two leaf shutter lenses (75mm and 135mm).
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