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Author Topic: NorthLight Images Canon (Rumour)  (Read 13061 times)
DiaAzul
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« on: August 22, 2008, 07:04:46 PM »
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This is possibly the most interesting piece of reporting (rumour collecting?) I have seen for a long time, true or not it makes a good read.

The link to the blog is here:

NorthLight Blog


The text from the blog (as it is impossible to link to individual posts) is here:
Quote
Canon obviously takes all those surveys it commisions seriously. Despite what you may see on various gear related forums, the mythical 'prosumer' customer bases a lot of their decisions on ISO range, frames per second and, you've guessed it, megapixels. The 10MP 40D was seen as markedly inferior to the D300, despite the hefty price difference. Thus the big increase in MP and ISO for the 50D.

Canon expect Sony to massively undercut the 1Ds Mk3 with their 25MP model(s?) which would put pressure on Canon if they stuck to 12 or 16MP FF for the 5D replacement. Nikon will also have two more before long, one well above the D3 in price, one between the D700 and D3. One in a D3 like body, the other in a D700 like body. The effective strategy is thus
 
- 5D replacement - emphasise low noise
- High MP FF pro camera, lower cost than 1Ds Mk3 [Yay, the 3D at last! -KC]
- 1Ds Mk3 upgrade (sooner than the 2010 '3 year' cycle) ~38MP with 50D pixels
- meantime, expect significant 1Ds Mk3 price cuts.

The new sensor design for the 50D has elements of the '50MP Demo' chip that everyone keeps mentioning, as will the 5D replacement. These two sensors are regarded as more of a step in performance than many previous changes. In particular, with the new 50D sensor, many of Canons primes (and some L zooms) will show the benefit of the high pixel density (38MP FF equiv).

Equally well, a FF sensor at this density will show up a lot of their lenses, so they have put a lot of resources into making sure that when the next 'flagship' camera debuts at ~35MP it will have more improved glass. The Nikon 12-24 was a bit more of a wake-up call and with the 24-70 was enough of a reason to switch for some of Canon's pro customers. New aspheric designs and exotic glasses take a lot of computer power and very specialised software.

For press use, expect HD video, since Digic IV has the processing power to handle this and the bigger sensor pixel counts. Expect it to debut in some form in the next consumer DSLR (500D). Part of the big AF redesign is addressing the problem of how to provide responsive tracking AF at a performance level suitable for sports use.

The 1D3 AF saga has deeply embarassed Canon, who are in the midst of a complete AF redesign from the 1 series down - this design team has been given considerable authority and resources. AF based on the new designs was specifically left out until next year's models (early 2009)

Sony are making no secret of their desire to go to 45-50MP within a few years. Sony's ability to compete price wise anywhere they choose worries Canon more than a revitalised Nikon. Despite their Zeiss lens pedigree, the threat is seen more in the prosumer range where the Sony brand is known. Despite their feeling that lens based IS is superior, Canon know that the in body IS of Sony is being used as an effective marketing tool.

Nikon have been agressively marketing towards pro photographers of late and their perceived weakness in prime lenses will not last.
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David Plummer    http://photo.tanzo.org/
Yoram from Berlin
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2008, 12:05:26 AM »
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Not sure if any of this is true, but it's definitely an exciting time to be a consumer in the camera market.  
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The View
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2008, 10:22:18 PM »
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Very interesting.

I have never seen so many rumors on one page.

Here about a Canon medium format camera:

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/canon_m...format_2ff.html

Mr. Cooper is either dating someone in the Canon product development department, has a sixth sense or an equally powerful crystal bal, connected friends...

...or... (Huh)

What's the reputation of this site? Do things come true it announces, or is the announcement the goal in itself?
« Last Edit: August 23, 2008, 10:24:36 PM by The View » Logged

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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2008, 11:30:22 PM »
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They report all rumors.  Eventually, as the release gets close, they start to get them right.  Not much of a trick.

I saw a guy on Fred Miranda's forums claiming all kinds of neato canon things.  The gist of it being that canon has started to shrink product cycles and all that.  Basically doing what nikon has done for the last 1 1/2 years.

Oh, here it is ...

http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/679757

Probably all crap but it was fun to read.
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ARD
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2008, 09:27:40 AM »
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Interesting reading - thing is, if they are all going to go into the 'our camera has more pixels than yours', will this mean that we'll all need to carry around loads of cards just for a normal days shooting.
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2008, 09:49:13 AM »
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No, you could shoot one of the sraw formats.
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jeffok
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2008, 01:14:27 PM »
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This piece, like almost all this bunkum, is just an extrapolation on what is already known combined with pure speculation on what may be coming. It does not seem to be based on any real "insider knowledge whatsoever. Looking back on all the speculation before the 1DS3 and D3 came out, how much of it turned out to be true? Most of the claims of having insider knowledge turned out to be bogus. Even Erwin Putts was so far off base his credibility sank. The accuracy of the rumours tends to increase as the date of release nears but that is only because so many more people in the supply chain are exposed to the new equipment and word leaks out.

Best to ignore this kind of BS and feel confident that the competition in the market will continue to drive innovation and refinement of photographic equipment. Meanwhile, enjoy what you have.
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ihv
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2008, 02:31:39 PM »
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What is not a rumor is that Canon is facing a competition this time and
I believe that all those concerns addressed are true (actually I would be
afraid if not).

Therefore what concerns the 1Ds Mk3 sounds quite a true for me
(not ready for an update but price balancing and a shorter life cycle).
Anything about new products is rather a speculation, Canon
seems to be quite serious about leaks (if not intentional).

As for personal preferences I hope to see a successor to the 1D Mk3,
in a FF form. High MP count is a MF territory in my opinion (because of
diffraction limitations).

my 2 cents ..
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ARD
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2008, 02:36:03 PM »
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I agree, now Sony has a grip on DSLR I imagine they will release something to rival, if not better than the Canon EOS 1D MKIII, and at a cheaper price.

All good then, if we can save money on kit through competitive pricing then fine.
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Yoram from Berlin
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2008, 12:12:41 PM »
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One other thing I firmly believe about Sony: every time they've entered a pro market, they have done extremely well - just look at video, video production and re-production, or their music studio equipment line. They may not have succeeded with consumer media carriers (Betamax, Memory Stick, blah) but when they want to be part of a market, they do a great job.

Sony has the marketing bucks, and the R&D depth to come out with spectacular products. They already make sensors for other companies, including Nikon. And the Konica Minolta people aren't exactly clueless either.

I expect Sony to be a very serious player if they choose to. Canon may need to worry, but as long as Nikon is relying on Sony sensors, they must worry, too.
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2008, 12:27:06 PM »
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Nikon doesn't use stock Sony sensors for anything interesting.  The D3's was a Nikon design.  And if Nikon stops buying Sony sensors then Sony will have to eat a lot more development and tooling costs through sales of their cameras alone.

The people making the DSLRs and the people making the chips are two separate bbu's at sony.  They both have to make money.
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Yoram from Berlin
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2008, 12:53:19 PM »
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Quote
Nikon doesn't use stock Sony sensors for anything interesting.  The D3's was a Nikon design.
Interesting, I did not know that.
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douglasf13
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« Reply #12 on: August 25, 2008, 01:06:00 PM »
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Interesting, I did not know that.
[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


  There's a chance that Nikon didn't use a Sony sensor in the D3 just because Sony didn't have a FF sensor ready yet, and there's also a good chance that the Nikon "D3x" type camera will use a Sony EXMOR.  As great as the D3 sensor is, it's nothing magical, and I'm sure Nikon would have no problem using Sony FF in the future.  In fact, here is an interesting quote about the EXMOR from another thread on this forum from BJL that I find interesting.

[a href=\"http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=26838]http://luminous-landscape.com/forum/index....showtopic=26838[/url]

"Dare I suggest that this might be an advantage of the Sony EXMOR sensor doing all processing in parallel at column bottom, and thus at far lower frequencies than the 1DsMkIII sensor has to use with its bottle-neck of all signals going through four (or is it eight) ADC's. The data (measured 1DsMkIII noise in ADU only slowly decreasing with reduced ISO speed while D300 noise in ADU decreases more with reduced ISO speed) fit the hypothesis that the 1DsMkIII gets a larger proportion of its noise after application of ISO gain, due to that post-gain processing being done at a far high frequency: Mhz rates vs KHz rates for the EXMOR sensor."

  EXMOR is a much more evolved sensor, which we'll get a taste of in FF soon, and don't forget that Sony also has the backlit CMOS' coming.

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/20...069E/index.html
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2008, 02:41:05 PM »
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It should be noted that the ultimate source (tsiphoto) has yet to comment on new Canon products.  I'm a little concerned that he won't bother now that he has purchased a Nikon.
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keith_cooper
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2008, 05:18:19 AM »
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They report all rumors.  Eventually, as the release gets close, they start to get them right.  Not much of a trick.

Since it's been asked - those rumours pages are a collection of stuff I get sent and spot on the net.

They are primarily for 'amusement/entertainment' and I seriously entreat visitors to to take what they read with a suitable (sometimes very large) pinch of salt. It's not meant to be 'much of a trick' ;-)

I know that some people don't like such stuff, but the emails I regularly get (not to mention the visitor numbers) suggest that a significant audience find them at least amusing.

Oh and there is the one person who sometimes writes to offer corrections to my grammar and punctuation - if the message were hand written I'd expect it in purple (or green) ink ;-)

In some ways I'd much rather the site were primarily known for my reviews and articles, but that doesn't have the cachet of potentially revealing 'secret information' - reviews can take quite a while to write, given I do have a 'real' job as a photographer ;-)
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2008, 08:17:59 PM »
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I expect Sony to be a very serious player if they choose to. Canon may need to worry, but as long as Nikon is relying on Sony sensors, they must worry, too.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=217147\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

As far as the mass market goes, I don't think so. The day Sony decides to stop selling their sensors to Nikon, their sensor division will pretty much go belly up... Nikon is by very far their largest customer.

Nikon has shown with the D3 that they are able to design top class sensors and to have them produced in reasonnable amounts without quality problems. They clearly don't need Sony for the high end.

My forecast is a statu quo on the low end and more Nikon specific sensors on the high end in a D3x+D900 to be introduced, if not at the Kina, then late 2008.

Cheers,
Bernard
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A few images online here!
douglasf13
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2008, 12:24:59 PM »
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As far as the mass market goes, I don't think so. The day Sony decides to stop selling their sensors to Nikon, their sensor division will pretty much go belly up... Nikon is by very far their largest customer.

Nikon has shown with the D3 that they are able to design top class sensors and to have them produced in reasonnable amounts without quality problems. They clearly don't need Sony for the high end.

My forecast is a statu quo on the low end and more Nikon specific sensors on the high end in a D3x+D900 to be introduced, if not at the Kina, then late 2008.

Cheers,
Bernard
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=217460\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

  I'm just not convinced.  My forecast is that Nikon uses a Sony sensor in the D3X.  Sony didn't have a FF CMOS ready over a year ago, and I'd bet that is the reason why Nikon had to go with someone else.  The Nikon sensor is great, but a 12MP FF from Sony or Canon with today's tech would be equally good.  The only issue I see is the 12bit vs. 14bit.
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sojournerphoto
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2008, 08:09:12 AM »
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, and don't forget that Sony also has the backlit CMOS' coming.

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/20...069E/index.html
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=217157\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


As a bonus, the report suggests that the sensor can cope with a wider angle of light incidence. Perhaps this wil also allow someone to give us a full frame M-mount rangefinder. A Zeiss Ikon digital??


Now there's a rumour!
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MarkL
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« Reply #18 on: September 01, 2008, 12:38:43 PM »
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Canon obviously takes all those surveys it commisions seriously.

...and yet still don't implement a mirror lockup button.
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