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Author Topic: Are we going into another depression?  (Read 32061 times)
Dinarius
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2008, 12:41:05 PM »
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Watched a top Princeton economist on the box the other evening saying: "This is the ultimate irony of the Bush presidency. In effect they're saying, "You're on your own........unless you owe a hundred billion dollars." "      

OK, sad really.

D.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2008, 12:41:37 PM by Dinarius » Logged
Dustbak
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2008, 12:50:36 PM »
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That is a very old saying which goes something like this:

If you owe a 100K you have a problem
If you owe a a million the bank has a problem
If you owe a billion the government has a problem

This was from the 80's when I heard it first so amounts are probably inflated by now. I was shocked to see what is happening last week in the US. Even more so by the current proposed rescue plan, I feel a lot more extra problems coming from this.

Also prohibiting of short selling is questionable. I am not sure whether 'naked short selling' has been prohibited which is strange because that already was illegal. Also the fact that some companies are protected and others not (799 currently on that list compared to only a few the first time short selling was prohibited for a brief period of time). I would be very upset when I was stakeholder in a company that was not on that list, for one thing.

The UK and France are following and doing the same thing. I wonder how this can comply with the rules that prohibit government support to companies in Europe (not sure whether these things are in place in the US).

Yup, strange things are happening lately...
« Last Edit: September 21, 2008, 01:37:03 PM by Dustbak » Logged
bcooter
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2008, 01:38:44 PM »
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Not to worry. The USA is a democracy until our financial institutions collapse. Then we turn socialist. Ironically, Bin Laden may have stated it correctly after 9-11, when he said, "I do not need a military victory in the USA. I only need to wait for its economic collapse." The morally corrupt Republican Party has delivered on that prophecy with Iraq and now our financial institutions. Your $2K figure is a little light. Try upwards of $3,200 per man, woman, and child.

On a happier note, I've still squirreled away the cash needed for an AFi II. If my bank doesn't go under before I get there.

David
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223055\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


doom and gloom stuff.  we saw it with the the first energy crisis, the vietnam war,  the taking of hostages in iran, the savings and loan crisis, the cold war, the cuban missle crisis, nafta, 9-11, Iraq and now the melting of wall street.

companies go under, tax rates change, the economy overheats and then corrects.  during every one of these end of the world scenarios after 12 months to 2 years the american economy righted itself and kept on going.

of course the political parties are playing it up big, trying to blame the other guy though remember we are in a year of regime change so all of the parties and news media is going to put out the most headline grabbing spin possible.

it is never as bad as they say, never as good as they promise.

by the way.  Barney Franks a democrat is the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee

from wiki;

As Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Frank "sits at the center of power".[27] Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, was quoted as saying, "He is one of the giants of Congress, a real legislator," in his new role.[27]

In 2003, Frank rejected Bush administration and Congressional Republican efforts for the most significant regulatory overhaul in the housing finance industry since the savings and loan crisis.[28] Under the plan a new agency would have been created within the Treasury Department to assume supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored companies that are the two largest players in the mortgage lending industry.[29] "These two entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not facing any kind of financial crisis," Frank said. He added, "The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.


also don't just blame america cause europe and asia was buyng this dept as fast as they could and spain, france, england jacked thier housing prices just like the u.s..

now they all have to blame somebody so they blame america.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2008, 01:41:12 PM by bcooter » Logged
Craig Lamson
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2008, 02:09:05 PM »
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Not to worry. The USA is a democracy until our financial institutions collapse. Then we turn socialist. Ironically, Bin Laden may have stated it correctly after 9-11, when he said, "I do not need a military victory in the USA. I only need to wait for its economic collapse." The morally corrupt Republican Party has delivered on that prophecy with Iraq and now our financial institutions. Your $2K figure is a little light. Try upwards of $3,200 per man, woman, and child.

On a happier note, I've still squirreled away the cash needed for an AFi II. If my bank doesn't go under before I get there.

David
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223055\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

I'll take issue with the US problems being the domain of the...how did you put it..."The morally corrupt Republican Party ".  Thats quite a short sighted statement and way short on a historic basis to back it up.
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2008, 02:17:45 PM »
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doom and gloom stuff.  we saw it with the the first energy crisis, the vietnam war,  the taking of hostages in iran, the savings and loan crisis, the cold war, the cuban missle crisis, nafta, 9-11, Iraq and now the melting of wall street.

[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Yep, and for the last 8 years Bushy has propogated that and had you guys go out and "Spend, Consume"

A few historical points to note
1929-39 great depression - lead to WWII
The vietnam war and the 1970s Iranian revolution caused the energy crisis
The saving and loan crisis is a drop in the bucket compared to this
The cold war - dude, its still here, but this time you can't do nothing about it
[a href=\"http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7602530.stm]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7602530.stm[/url]
The cuban missile crisis - as above
Nafta - problem yes
9-11 does not equal iraq war
Wall street - US Government over last 20yrs


The upshot - everyone will suffer, not just Americans
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Craig Lamson
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« Reply #25 on: September 21, 2008, 06:39:28 PM »
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US banks misused the trust of fellow (foreign) banks by selling them packages with rotten mortgages in them without informing them. There was no way these buying banks could find out how well funded the American mortgages were. Banks should be able to trust each other. This trust is now broken (by US banks) and that is the main cause of the crisis. The value of the dollar completely depends on trust too, since they dropped the gold standard. Nobody trusts the US dollar anymore, so it goes down the drain. Many US monetary policies would be considered illegal in Europe. I have no problem blaming the thieves for having stolen the goods. Why have the rest of the world pay for it?

Let's face the facts: all those houses that were built in America with all those unfunded mortgages; someone paid for the materials that they were made of. Someone made money with building them. Actual resources were used although the money that paid for the use of these resources was nothing more than printed paper, coming from the US government. The same resources could have been used so much better elsewhere in the world. Especially now that nobody really wants to pay for them. People in China, India and Pakistan are homeless due to earthquakes. And in the US all those beautiful houses are empty. We are all living in one world, but Planet USA seems to think it's in a different galaxy.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223076\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Ah yes, lets just all blame America... Sheesh.  The worldwide investors who made the purchases were quite savvy, and smart enough to understand as Reagan said..trust, but VERIFY!.  If they failed in their due diligence who"s fault is that?  They were greedy and they got burnt.  But thats the way business works, you win some and you lose some.  Even our business works that way.
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« Reply #26 on: September 21, 2008, 07:58:55 PM »
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They were greedy and they got burnt.  But thats the way business works, you win some and you lose some.  Even our business works that way.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223119\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Ah yes, the good old sink or swim attitude of the american free market economy and democracy hey..

Well, if your law makers hadn't made it so tempting to gamble so much money that didn't actually exist, over valuate the stock prices of these institutions, with all the deregulation over the last 8 years, some protection might have saved a bit of the nightmare to maybe just a bad dream.

Moreover, there were a bunch of people who should never have qualified for credit the way your regulators allowed them to have it. They are not to blame. One day they could not afford the American Dream and the next they were told they could. And, who were they told by - your government, by the relaxing and deregulation of the mortgage industry.

Now, whether you like it or not, your government has almost total control of your finance, mortgage, and insurance industries and has just propped up your money market (you know - to avoid the run on the banks)....well, to me thats sounds like a State Monopoly or for lack of a better term Socialism!

And as for America bashing. Well, you guys need to learn to take as good as you seem to want to give to the rest of the world....cause now the rest of the world is stuck in this mess you caused.

Interesting hey!
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sergio
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« Reply #27 on: September 21, 2008, 08:27:46 PM »
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The probem can be felt everywhere and it probably is just starting. I got out of debt, which my common sense tells me to do if ample work dwindles, and I restrained myself of doing huge investments in high end gear. At least for the time being. If I need it, I rent it. Let somebody else have the financial burden of the investment. If for any reason I have to lower my prices just to keep working, it will be far easier this way.

Though I agree with James Russell, it is good to be "light" business wise. To take opportunities when they arise it is important to have low overheads and have space to manouver.

When people lose faith in a currency it is probably the worst and terminal scenario for it. I got rid of all my US dollars. They lose value too fast. I guess if everybody outside of the US gets rid of them, they will all eventually fly back into the US and become worthless little green papers.

Interesting times.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2008, 08:28:48 PM by sergio » Logged

H1/A75 Guy
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« Reply #28 on: September 21, 2008, 08:58:50 PM »
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When people lose faith in a currency it is probably the worst and terminal scenario for it. I got rid of all my US dollars. They lose value too fast. I guess if everybody outside of the US gets rid of them, they will all eventually fly back into the US and become worthless little green papers.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223138\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
Please send those US dollars back. I still cringe thinking about buying an AFi with Euros or Pounds. Nice website by the way.

David
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ndevlin
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« Reply #29 on: September 21, 2008, 09:31:46 PM »
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Don't worry about the hicup in the economy guys, Sarah Palin's all over it. No, really, she can see a Bank of America branch from her house, so it's all going to be A-ok.

As for me, I'm just glad to be in a 100% recession-proof business, so I can keep paying my modest little mortgage while waiting for good deals on MF backs :-)

- N.
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« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2008, 09:43:07 PM »
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Ah yes, the good old sink or swim attitude of the american free market economy and democracy hey..

Well, if your law makers hadn't made it so tempting to gamble so much money that didn't actually exist, over valuate the stock prices of these institutions, with all the deregulation over the last 8 years, some protection might have saved a bit of the nightmare to maybe just a bad dream.

Moreover, there were a bunch of people who should never have qualified for credit the way your regulators allowed them to have it. They are not to blame. One day they could not afford the American Dream and the next they were told they could. And, who were they told by - your government, by the relaxing and deregulation of the mortgage industry.

Now, whether you like it or not, your government has almost total control of your finance, mortgage, and insurance industries and has just propped up your money market (you know - to avoid the run on the banks)....well, to me thats sounds like a State Monopoly or for lack of a better term Socialism!

And as for America bashing. Well, you guys need to learn to take as good as you seem to want to give to the rest of the world....cause now the rest of the world is stuck in this mess you caused.

Interesting hey!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223135\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

This is really all beyond your ken.  Please try angain next time.
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« Reply #31 on: September 21, 2008, 09:53:35 PM »
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This is really all beyond your ken.  Please try angain next time.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223152\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Lost ya!
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Craig Lamson
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« Reply #32 on: September 21, 2008, 09:59:54 PM »
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Lost ya!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223155\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Oh yes...lost...I'd say.
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« Reply #33 on: September 21, 2008, 10:42:24 PM »
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Oh yes...lost...I'd say.
[{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]

Lets do some reading together...

[a href=\"http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122202739111460721.html]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122202739111460721.html[/url]

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/leading-t...kyb.html?page=1
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TMARK
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« Reply #34 on: September 22, 2008, 01:02:35 AM »
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Oi Oi Oi!

Thanks.  






Quote
Ah yes, the good old sink or swim attitude of the american free market economy and democracy hey..

Well, if your law makers hadn't made it so tempting to gamble so much money that didn't actually exist, over valuate the stock prices of these institutions, with all the deregulation over the last 8 years, some protection might have saved a bit of the nightmare to maybe just a bad dream.

Moreover, there were a bunch of people who should never have qualified for credit the way your regulators allowed them to have it. They are not to blame. One day they could not afford the American Dream and the next they were told they could. And, who were they told by - your government, by the relaxing and deregulation of the mortgage industry.

Now, whether you like it or not, your government has almost total control of your finance, mortgage, and insurance industries and has just propped up your money market (you know - to avoid the run on the banks)....well, to me thats sounds like a State Monopoly or for lack of a better term Socialism!

And as for America bashing. Well, you guys need to learn to take as good as you seem to want to give to the rest of the world....cause now the rest of the world is stuck in this mess you caused.

Interesting hey!
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223135\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]
« Last Edit: September 22, 2008, 01:43:26 AM by TMARK » Logged
free1000
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« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2008, 04:16:40 AM »
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Not to frighten the horses unnecessarily. But read this and realise that what is happening puts many of our petty quibbles into perspective.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/washingt...gin&oref=slogin

'It was a room full of people who rarely hold their tongues. But as the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, laid out the potentially devastating ramifications of the financial crisis before congressional leaders on Thursday night, there was a stunned silence at first.

Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had made an urgent and unusual evening visit to Capitol Hill, and they were gathered around a conference table in the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“When you listened to him describe it you gulped," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.

As Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, put it Friday morning on the ABC program “Good Morning America,” the congressional leaders were told “that we’re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications here at home and globally.”

Mr. Schumer added, “History was sort of hanging over it, like this was a moment.”'
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« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2008, 05:48:27 AM »
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Judging from the way folks are falling over themselves to order the new 5D Mk2, D700, 50D-etc and string of LX3, G10, X-whatever point 'n shoots you could be forgiven for asking "crisis, what crisis?".

I'd love to know what the back order status is at a business like B&H ? . . .  
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Regards, HILTON
Lust4Life
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« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2008, 06:48:13 AM »
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Inflation 1923-24: A woman in Germany feeds her tiled stove with money. The money was worth less than firewood.

For photo of this, see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

Need one say more?
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Craig Lamson
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« Reply #38 on: September 22, 2008, 08:06:31 AM »
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Yes, lets..  you are circling down the drain...

[a href=\"http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/22/ccambrose122.xml]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cambrose122.xml[/url]

Please get back to us when you are up to speed.
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Streetshooter
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« Reply #39 on: September 22, 2008, 09:43:21 AM »
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Yes, lets..  you are circling down the drain...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...cambrose122.xml

Please get back to us when you are up to speed.
[a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=223224\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a]


It's a very dangerous game to believe what you read in the papers. Especially in the 'Daily Torygraph'.

Ol' GW has left a fine legacy for us all to sort out.....
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