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Question: What will Nikon release on November 20?
D3x only (D3 size body, 35mm FF sensor, 20+MP) - 27 (54%)
D700x only (D700 size body, 35mm FF sensor, 20+MP) - 2 (4%)
MX SLR only (medium format sensor in an SLR body - think Leica S2 -) - 7 (14%)
MX rangefinder/electronic only (medium format sensor in a new type of body) - 1 (2%)
D3x AND D700x - 2 (4%)
D3x and/or D700x plus MX SLR - 2 (4%)
D3x and/or D700x plus MX rangefinder - 2 (4%)
Something else (a new batch of coolpixes, a D300 replacement, a printer, etc... - 7 (14%)
Total Voters: 47

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Author Topic: What do you think Nikon will do on Nov. 20?  (Read 15163 times)
Dan Wells
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« on: November 10, 2008, 04:53:51 PM »
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Nikon has a big press conference scheduled for Nov. 20, and I'm pretty darned sure, both from the amount of chatter and from the fact that all their competitors have high-resolution bodies, we'll see something with more than 12 MP from them on that date. Apart from the ridiculous (like a high-resolution Coolpix), there are three options (four if you count the unlikely high-resolution non-full-frame D300 variant). We could see a D700x that competes with the Alpha 900 and the 5DmkII, a D3x that goes head to head with the 1Ds mk III, or something completely different. Rumors have included everything from the trivially easy (a D700 body with the Sony Alpha 900 sensor in it) up to the never before tried (a medium-format body with electronic viewfinders only (the primary finder would probably be a supersize rear LCD - something approaching 5 inches and 1024x768 resolution)). So, what do folks think it'll be, and what do you want to see?
    Personally, I'd love to see Nikon go medium format - the all-electronic (or electronic plus optical rangefinder, but non-SLR) design actually has a lot of appeal, because it could be the size of a Mamiya 7, which is a wonderful field landscape camera that never made the transition to digital. It could shoot like a Mamiya 7 when needed, marvelously easy to handhold, yet turn into a camera with 4x5 versatility when plunked down on a tripod with a tilt/shift lens (or a tilt/shift adapter like Hasselblad makes) on it. The LCD would actually be big enough to judge the effect of camera movements (plus it would be easy to magnify whatever area you're concerned about). If it used a sensor of the smallest "medium format" size - 33x44 mm -and the pixel pitch of the D300, it would be a 48 mp camera! If Nikon released this as an $8000 body, the entire medium format market would run for cover. It would also take a lot of the 1Ds market away from Canon, although not all of it, because I'm guessing this camera would be SLOW (not by medium-format standards, but 1-2 FPS, not the 3-5 of the Canons). Since the viewfinder is electronic, it could use zoom lenses as an option, which are a real pain with optical rangefinders!

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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2008, 08:22:50 PM »
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I would like to believe in MX, but I don't think that Nikon would risk introducing MX without also introducing a high MP FX camera.

An EVF based MX seems unlikely to me considering the vast array of validation done by Nikon. I doubt such a camera would pass their cold shooting and battery tests.

So I vote for a double announcement with a D3x and SLR type MX.

Cheers,
Bernard
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arashm
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2008, 10:49:41 PM »
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Hello
My vote is for the D3X, well just a guess!
it looks like Nikon currently has a nice set up, there is a new product in every category except for a high MP DSLR.
also maybe not a surprise to see a D3s which will be a D3 with the added dust shaker, Deeper buffer and the general improvements we've seen since it's introduction.
just speculations on my end, kinda fun  
we'll see in 10 days  
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Dan Wells
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« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2008, 11:36:27 PM »
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D3s is an interesting idea - I could certainly see it, catching up in places where the D700 is actually ahead (I hope e D3s isn't all we get). I wonder if it would add a video mode - the D3 has the relatively low resolution and very fast pipelines that would be perfect for video (if really well implemented, look out RED).

                           -Dan


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imagico
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2008, 06:24:25 AM »
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I am not sure about how likely this is but how about a FF rangefinder?  This does not rule out any other option but this could definitely be something for Nikon to work on.  From the technological standpoint it is much closer to what they already have than any MF system.
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David Anderson
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2008, 06:55:20 AM »
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I think they will do the MX thing - they must be tired of of the bagging they're getting from people with high rez mobile phones..  

Seriously, I think there's room in the market for a camera that has medium format rez with 35mm control, to date the medium format cameras I've tried impress me with the image quality, but not ergonomics and function.

Both Nikon and Canon could easily make a better medium format IMHO.
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JeffKohn
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2008, 09:28:13 AM »
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I thought the "something big" announcement of MX format was widely believed to be coming in January at WPPI convention. My guess is that if there's a big announcement this month it will either be D3x or D700x. I'm not sure which it will be, because I think it depends on the sensor. I don't think the Sony 24mp chip is good enough to put in a D3x. So my prediction is that we'll either get a D3x with a high-res version of the D3 sensor, or a D700x with a Nikon-tweaked version of the Sony sensor.
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250swb
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2008, 10:12:45 AM »
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It will be a format that mimic's the Micro 4/3rds format of small interchangable lens platforms, or indeed directly use the MFT sensor size and lens mount.

Steve
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Tony Beach
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2008, 11:46:54 AM »
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NX3, Coolpix, software upgrades, and maybe a D300s with movie mode added.

Canon isn't shipping the 5DII to retailers in the United States until December and Nikon isn't going to match that anyway, nobody sells many pro level cameras just before or just after Christmas; that's a consumer buying period.  Nikon does need to announce a higher MP DSLR before they lose credibility as a full line camera company -- it will be a larger pro body that sells for more because they're going to reset the $4500 price point for their top end DSLR since the D3 is now slipping in price thanks in part to the D700.

For Nikon the sensor they use is the critical thing, and after they've milked the pros and wealthier enthusiasts then they will put that same sensor in a smaller and more affordable body (just as they did with the D3 sensor being used in the D700, and in about the same time frame).  I think the reason Nikon hasn't announced something already is that they're not using the Sony sensor; a video mode would also slow down the release date if it wasn't included in the original design and they now feel they have to have it, which is debatable.  I'm sure Nikon is moving as fast as they can to avoid losing out to Canon and Sony on this high MP DSLR front, but here in the United States I can't buy either of those other brand's offerings yet, so I think Nikon is using every minute they have available before the 5DII and A900 are actually available to tweak their newest flagship DSLR and won't actually make an announcement until December.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2008, 11:48:19 AM by Tony Beach » Logged
BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2008, 04:54:52 PM »
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Quote from: Tony Beach
For Nikon the sensor they use is the critical thing, and after they've milked the pros and wealthier enthusiasts then they will put that same sensor in a smaller and more affordable body (just as they did with the D3 sensor being used in the D700, and in about the same time frame).  I think the reason Nikon hasn't announced something already is that they're not using the Sony sensor; a video mode would also slow down the release date if it wasn't included in the original design and they now feel they have to have it, which is debatable.  I'm sure Nikon is moving as fast as they can to avoid losing out to Canon and Sony on this high MP DSLR front, but here in the United States I can't buy either of those other brand's offerings yet, so I think Nikon is using every minute they have available before the 5DII and A900 are actually available to tweak their newest flagship DSLR and won't actually make an announcement until December.

Agreed on the general direction, but I don't think it is possible for Nikon to tweak much a few weekd before an announcement. That is just not the way such products are designed.

Cheers,
Bernard

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Tony Beach
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2008, 05:21:10 PM »
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Quote from: BernardLanguillier
...I don't think it is possible for Nikon to tweak much a few weekd before an announcement. That is just not the way such products are designed.

I agree, but any major changes to the original design (if there were any) were probably implemented months ago when Nikon probably realized that the 5DII would have video capability.  Note that the D90 already has video capability and Nikon may have made design decisions about a new flagship at that time but needed to bring engineering resources over from the D90 to complete its implementation.  It could be (yes, this is a highly speculative thread, so it's all "could be", "what if", etc) that shoehorning this into the new camera has taken more time and delayed the announcement, probably last minute tweaks are firmware and software related.

Why not announce a new flagship on November 20?  I have two reasons for making my counterintuitive prediction:  first is that Nikon doesn't have to (as I already wrote), second is that someone with insider information at DPR predicted middle of December for this latest flagship development.  Naturally, I could well be wrong.

Coming back to that really "big" thing that was supposed to be announce back in October, I suspect it's MX and Nikon has radically changed course due to the economy, because they don't want to undermine their loyal user base that is patiently waiting for lens updates and a high MP DSLR, because the Leica S2 is too expensive to be a threat to their plans, and because their real competition is Canon and they are watching them to make sure they don't get outdone by a counter announcement.  With the hard times we are experiencing and that will only get worse next year, I think Canon and Nikon are going to be putting the screws on everybody, including Hasselblad and Mamiya -- Canon and Nikon plan on coming out of the recession (probably early 2010) with fewer competitors.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2008, 05:24:32 PM by Tony Beach » Logged
pix2pixels
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2008, 12:36:42 AM »
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My wishful thinking:

A high MP full frame DSLR to counteract the Sony and Canon line-up.

As D90 can record video, I think that any new model will have at least that, hopefully with better quality than the paltry MJPEG and with more recording options than the upcoming 5DMk2 (i.e. 24/25/30 fps, locked AE exposure...).

I don't think that at this stage, Canon will enable pro level video features in the firmware for the 5Dmk2. Nikon - as opposed to Canon, Sony, Panasonic doesn't have a video camera division to protect and nothing can stop them to release a camera with serious video recording capabilities.

Any announcement will dampen the enthusiasm around the 5DMk2 release and will put off a lot of the potential buyers, who will be happy to wait a few months for a camera at least as good if not better than what's on offer now.

Canon will have to be a bit less sleepy, more in tune with the consumer demands and reconsider releasing new models every 3-4 years.
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Dan Wells
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2008, 09:44:18 AM »
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Quote from: pix2pixels
My wishful thinking:

A high MP full frame DSLR to counteract the Sony and Canon line-up.

As D90 can record video, I think that any new model will have at least that, hopefully with better quality than the paltry MJPEG and with more recording options than the upcoming 5DMk2 (i.e. 24/25/30 fps, locked AE exposure...).

I don't think that at this stage, Canon will enable pro level video features in the firmware for the 5Dmk2. Nikon - as opposed to Canon, Sony, Panasonic doesn't have a video camera division to protect and nothing can stop them to release a camera with serious video recording capabilities.

Any announcement will dampen the enthusiasm around the 5DMk2 release and will put off a lot of the potential buyers, who will be happy to wait a few months for a camera at least as good if not better than what's on offer now.

Canon will have to be a bit less sleepy, more in tune with the consumer demands and reconsider releasing new models every 3-4 years.


RED is saying that EVERYONE will have to be a bit less sleepy... Even if they deliver 80% of what they promised this morning, it's s game changer. The only thing that saves the incumbent DSLR manufacturers is the cost! The desirable still camera costs $12K for the body only, minus the viewfinder - BUT it's 24 MP, medium format dynamic range, fully modular (takes BOTH Canon and Nikon lenses) - OH, and its video mode... The movie mode just happens to be somewhere between top-end 35mm cine and 70mm OMNIMAX in quality... By the way,they also just introduced a 6x17 cm full-frame camera with 261 MP single-shot capture and a movie mode (which, if true, would have still image quality significantly beyond 4x10 INCH panoramic film and motion quality well beyond OMNIMAX). How the heck you view a 261 mp movie is beyond me - there's not a digital projector in the world with that kind of specs...

                                              -Dan
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jjj
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2008, 08:37:49 PM »
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Quote from: Dan Wells
By the way,they also just introduced a 6x17 cm full-frame camera with 261 MP single-shot capture and a movie mode (which, if true, would have still image quality significantly beyond 4x10 INCH panoramic film and motion quality well beyond OMNIMAX). How the heck you view a 261 mp movie is beyond me - there's not a digital projector in the world with that kind of specs...
Build it and they will come!  
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Tony Beach
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« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2008, 06:09:42 PM »
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It's time to bump this thread as it appears Nikon will not do anything on November 20'th (that should have been an option too).

In light of that, I would change my vote as a December announcement in lieu of a November announcement is an entirely different ballgame (see my previous post regarding the timing of this).  I think this post at DPR by Thom Hogan makes a lot of sense to me.
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Slough
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2008, 07:16:38 AM »
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Quote from: Tony Beach
It's time to bump this thread as it appears Nikon will not do anything on November 20'th (that should have been an option too).

In light of that, I would change my vote as a December announcement in lieu of a November announcement is an entirely different ballgame (see my previous post regarding the timing of this).  I think this post at DPR by Thom Hogan makes a lot of sense to me.

Ah, the Dpreview experts! Best just wait and see.
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Tony Beach
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2008, 10:47:26 AM »
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Quote from: Slough
Ah, the Dpreview experts! Best just wait and see.

Well, "...just wait and see" applies to this thread from its inception and is why I didn't jump in initially.  Based on some things I was reading from one of the "Dpreview experts" I concluded that nothing significant would be announced until December, and that date now seems to be confirmed:  http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30066211

Are you insinuating that Thom Hogan has no expertise?
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Slough
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« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2008, 07:20:07 AM »
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Quote from: Tony Beach
Well, "...just wait and see" applies to this thread from its inception and is why I didn't jump in initially.  Based on some things I was reading from one of the "Dpreview experts" I concluded that nothing significant would be announced until December, and that date now seems to be confirmed:  http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp...essage=30066211

Are you insinuating that Thom Hogan has no expertise?

That is a misinterpretation of my posting.

I respect Thom's reviews. But he has taken to writing all knowing pieces telling us what Nikon should do and what Nikon will do. Thom has more knowledge than most people given his trade contacts and the fact that he writes highly respected user manuals, but at the end of the day the only people who know are Nikon and people who have signed Non Disclosure Agreements. Having read numerous 'expert' predictions which were 'guaranteed' to be 100% kosher, and which turned out to be wrong, I think it best just to wait and see.

My comment was more about the fact that anything on dpreview is suspect. I can't say I understand why Hogan gets involved in that nonsense.

Incidentally, numerous 'authorities' were predicting 20th November for an announcement.
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2008, 07:47:01 AM »
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Quote from: Slough
Incidentally, numerous 'authorities' were predicting 20th November for an announcement.

As a protest for Nikon's inability to meet their DPreview commitments, I will probably become a Yashica fanboy.

Cheers,
Bernard
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Morris Taub
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« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2008, 08:21:06 AM »
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Quote from: BernardLanguillier
As a protest for Nikon's inability to meet their DPreview commitments, I will probably become a Yashica fanboy.

   
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