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Author Topic: Nikon on Crack  (Read 33197 times)
MatthewCromer
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« on: November 30, 2008, 10:30:13 PM »
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$8000?!

Nikon execs must have missed the memo: the global economy is collapsing, people have seen their net worth slashed in half, commercial studios are bleeding, and you think you can charge $8000 when Sony is selling a comparable camera for less than half that, with Canon selling something close enough for $2700.

This camera should have been introduced for $5000 and the D3 lowered to $4000.  It is now absolutely critical that Nikon get the D700x / D800 out as soon as possible for under $3000.  The days of milking high end photo customers are OVER with the Alpha 900 and 5D2 on the market.

What a disaster for Nikon!!!

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Mark LW
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« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2008, 10:34:15 PM »
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I sure hope that's a misprint......

Will have to wait a few months to see if the price drops to a reasonable range.  Hopefully lack of sales (due strictly to price) will force Nikon to drop it a notch or two.
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Tony Beach
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2008, 11:10:14 PM »
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It makes me wonder what a "D700x" (or whatever they choose to call the next camera body with the D3x sensor in it) will cost.  I might decide to switch systems if Nikon doesn't make the next camera's price competitive.
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petermacc
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2008, 11:24:54 PM »
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Quote from: Mark LW
I sure hope that's a misprint......

Will have to wait a few months to see if the price drops to a reasonable range.  Hopefully lack of sales (due strictly to price) will force Nikon to drop it a notch or two.

I would not mind paying 5000 for something like that. For a thousand dollars more I could get a medium format Phase one at 9K! This is not competitive and reeks of greed to me. Very disappointed.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2008, 11:25:24 PM by petermacc » Logged
BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2008, 12:01:00 AM »
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Yes, they are. The street price in Tokyo appears to be around 800.000 Yen, that's indeed at least 30% too expensive.

The A900 appears to be more tempting every day that passes by.

Cheers,
Bernard
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jimk
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2008, 12:11:33 AM »
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they probably justify the price over the sony and 5dmk2 because it has better autofocus i.e. 51 point autofocus and yadda yadda and "bulletproof"contruction sorta i dunno i had the 5dmk2 in my hands and the sony didnt feel like chopped liver but it didnt feel like my d300 either as for me the only thing im investing in in the coming year is lenses or maybe just 1 lens .. i can see eventually the 5dmk2 and/or the sony falling in price a lot and making it more enticing to buy 1 and going to a 2 brand setup for different purposes ..as far as d3x and a d700x or whatever they will call it those who need ultra mega pixels will find a way to pay for it
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2008, 12:30:29 AM »
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Quote from: jimk
they probably justify the price over the sony and 5dmk2 because it has better autofocus i.e. 51 point autofocus and yadda yadda and "bulletproof"contruction sorta i dunno i had the 5dmk2 in my hands and the sony didnt feel like chopped liver but it didnt feel like my d300 either as for me the only thing im investing in in the coming year is lenses or maybe just 1 lens .. i can see eventually the 5dmk2 and/or the sony falling in price a lot and making it more enticing to buy 1 and going to a 2 brand setup for different purposes ..as far as d3x and a d700x or whatever they will call it those who need ultra mega pixels will find a way to pay for it

As long as they are not convincing me of their value offering, I seriously doubt that they will suceed to convince a significant amount of Nikon shooters, especially considering the current economic turmoil.

We all know that they can produce the D3 pretty cheap now, the sensor appears to be Sony made and is probably worth about the same as the D3 sensor. I am personnally not willing to let them get away with this kind of pricing/margins. How much is the next one going to cost?
 
Cheers,
Bernard
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NikosR
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« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2008, 01:15:11 AM »
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I wonder how many of you guys have a sense of corporate business and pricing. Cost of production is usually a minor factor when we're talking about Pro and niche products.  Could anybody tell me what the official price of the 1DsMkIII is? Ah! I thought so.. Who's going to buy the D3X? The same kind of people who are buying the 1DsMkIII.

No manufacturer is going to price their product at introduction too aggressively against their immediate competition unless they are ready to engage in a price war which they think they could win and re-define a market. And Nikon has showed up till now that they do not want to engage in a price war with Canon.

Everybody is mentioning the 5DII and the A900 as if those were the D3X's competitors. Well, I'm sorry, but they aren't. Not in Nikon's mind, and it shouldn't be in your minds either since the only thing that we currently  know  they have in common is sensor resolution.

I guess what everybody wants to say is that a D700x is sorely missing from the Nikon line-up. To this I have to agree. I would expect Nikon not to wait too long before introducing the D700x. But to expect of Nikon to engage in a catastrophic (for them) price war with Canon at this stage is absurd business wise.

The 1DsMkIII's price has slipped and will slip more now that there's competition around, and I'm sure that Nikon have built enough margin in the D3x's official price to follow suit (and to compete in those special bids we all know take place in the pro market..). But this is a wholly different matter than engaging in a full scale price war on introduction, and that's what would have happened if Nikon had priced the D3x at $5000-$6000 as people seem to propose. Who would have won? Nobody, of course (but the consumer) with Canon emerging in a much better state than Nikon due to their size and the fact that they should have amortized much of the development cost by now.

The $7K-$8K price range at introduction still makes sense for cameras that claim to challenge MF backs in what they deliver to the pro. Target audience: A couple of Pro niches (+ the dentists) as it has always been with the 1Ds series.

So wishful thinking is one thing, realistic thinking is another... Who's on crack now?
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 01:35:07 AM by NikosR » Logged

Nikos
spidermike
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2008, 03:23:57 AM »
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Perhaps Nikon don't expect to sell many due to the reasons above - if it is not meant to challenge any specific market level (which are all becoming more saturated with every passing year) then sales will be lower and you need to charge more. So the high price becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The people who will buy it are those who (a) have a sort of 'completist collector' approach and like to get the latest and the best of a specific brand or ( those who want the very specific things that the model gives them.

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flashfredrikson
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« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2008, 03:31:45 AM »
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I guess every rent in the pro world will buy a couple of those. A lot of pros including myself who always shot nikon back in the film days and had to switch to canon because nikon's lineup was just not good enough in the last years will consider the D3x. I was really lookin forward to this camera, ok, the price tag is high but it will come done a bit.
What the real bummer is (and I know I will get lynched for that): NO VIDEO!!! Hello Nikon, are you sleeping (or really on crack)? I was expecting 1080p with variable framerates (and maybe even raw video)... Now I will not even consider this cam but place an order for the 5D Mk II.

cheers
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heinrichvoelkel
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2008, 04:23:40 AM »
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any info on the date of availability?
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NikosR
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2008, 04:42:38 AM »
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Quote from: heinrichvoelkel
any info on the date of availability?

Late December. This year
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 04:43:35 AM by NikosR » Logged

Nikos
jjj
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2008, 05:14:28 AM »
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Quote from: NikosR
Everybody is mentioning the 5DII and the A900 as if those were the D3X's competitors. Well, I'm sorry, but they aren't. Not in Nikon's mind, and it shouldn't be in your minds either since the only thing that we currently  know  they have in common is sensor resolution.
And for many people that will be why they bought them. The 1Ds is often used as a studio camera and a MF replcement, so the Sony A900 and the 5DII are indeed it's competitors now.


Quote
The $7K-$8K price range at introduction still makes sense for cameras that claim to challenge MF backs in what they deliver to the pro. Target audience: A couple of Pro niches (+ the dentists) as it has always been with the 1Ds series.
and like pros bopught the 1Ds instead of MF cameras, some will now buy 5DII/Sony A900s instead of the 1Ds.

Quote
So wishful thinking is one thing, realistic thinking is another... Who's on crack now?
Nikon fanbois it would appear!  

If Nikon had introduced this when the 1DSII appeared, I doubt there would have been so much of a fuss, but it appears to be a little lacking by today's standards/competition. And as $8000 usually translates into 8000 over here, I doubt many of them will sell in UK if that is the case, as most photographers [all over the world] who wanted high-res 35mm kit will have switched to Canon a long time ago.
If however the image quality is way, way better than the Canon, then they would have an advantage. But is it too little to late for that part of the market -  advertising or studio photographers.
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NikosR
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« Reply #13 on: December 01, 2008, 05:23:03 AM »
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It's GBP 5499 according to the announcement. So you're lucky   you just saved 2.5K pounds.

You think that trying to put some things under business perspective rather than let everyone moan about why a ferrari or a lorry is much more expensive than their average car makes me a fanboy then? Surely a strange way of thinking.

Yes, some / many people will use 5DIIs, A900s and D700x (when they materlialize) instead of the top level cameras. Manufacturers know that, I suppose. What do you think is the percentage of those people buying such cameras that would have bought the very expensive ones if they didn't have an alternative? The manufacturers seem to think that it's small...otherwise they wouldn't have introduced the cheaper cameras in the first place. Remember it was Canon who did that at a time when their 1Ds was the only high res camera out there. Have they been suicidal?

As I said before, nobody would have been moaning about the D3x price if the D700x had been introduced at the same time. Their perspective would have changed comparing apples to apples.

And a last thing. It's Canon who have defined the price range in this market. If Canon responds with lowering their price substanstially, I'm sure Nikon have built in the margins to reply appropriately. Nikon's problem is not the D3x price. It is the non existence of the D700x.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 05:50:51 AM by NikosR » Logged

Nikos
Czornyj
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« Reply #14 on: December 01, 2008, 06:23:29 AM »
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Quote from: NikosR
You think that trying to put some things under business perspective rather than let everyone moan about why a ferrari or a lorry is much more expensive than their average car makes me a fanboy then? Surely a strange way of thinking.

I don't know what bussines perespective do they have, but IMO there's something wrong with it:
D1 - 5500$
D1H - 3100$
D1X - 3900$
D2H - 3200$
D2Hs - 3500$
D2X - 5000$
D2Xs - 4700$
D3 - 5000$
D3X -8000$!!!!!!!!!!!
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 06:40:45 AM by Czornyj » Logged

NikosR
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« Reply #15 on: December 01, 2008, 06:44:02 AM »
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Quote from: Czornyj
I don't know what bussines perespective do they have, but IMO there's something wrong with it:
D1 - 5500$
D1H - 3100$
D1X - 3900$
D2H - 3200$
D2Hs - 3500$
D2X - 5000$
D2Xs - 4700$
D3 - 5000$
D3X -8000$!!!!!!!!!!!


Get the D3 then. Still current AFAIK. Pls. check RRP prices for Canon 1DMkIII vs 1DsMkIII.

Why is it so difficult to understand that you can't underprice your product against a direct competitor light heartedly, especially when you want to argue that it's a better product. You don't have to like Nikon's pricing. Just try to understand how pricing works.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 06:46:05 AM by NikosR » Logged

Nikos
Czornyj
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2008, 06:52:49 AM »
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Quote from: NikosR
Get the D3 then. Still current AFAIK. Pls. check RRP prices for Canon 1DMkIII vs 1DsMkIII.

Why is it so difficult to understand that you can't underprice your product against a direct competitor light heartedly, especially when you want to argue that it's a better product. You don't have to like Nikon's pricing. Just try to understand how pricing works.

1DsMk3 was introduced 1,5 yrs ago. And it didn't have any direct competitor at that time.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 06:54:22 AM by Czornyj » Logged

NikosR
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2008, 07:12:46 AM »
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Quote from: Czornyj
1DsMk3 was introduced 1,5 yrs ago. And it didn't have any direct competitor at that time.

For Pete's sake. It's a current model with the same official price. I'm sure the D3x will follow its price slip soon enough.

Do BMW introduce a model competitive to a Mercedes model at a vastly reduced price? Why should they? To start a price war? Street prices are slipping, but people should understand that introducing a new model at an official price in line with the competition and let it slip is very different than introducing a model at a significantly reduced price.

Quoting Bjorn Rorslett from nikongear.com:

'The market segment addressed by this model might not be big enough to drive the price down quickly. When I talked to a senior executive at Nikon Nordic, he estimated the projected sale of D3X to be less than 1/3 of the D3 in terms of units, however, the positive side effects of Nikon's encroachment into the studio arena were perceived to be huge.'



Never mind. I'm done with all this.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 07:27:58 AM by NikosR » Logged

Nikos
BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2008, 07:46:27 AM »
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Quote from: NikosR
Do BMW introduce a model competitive to a Mercedes model at a vastly reduced price? Why should they? To start a price war? Street prices are slipping, but people should understand that introducing a new model at an official price in line with the competition and let it slip is very different than introducing a model at a significantly reduced price.

Yes, it is. On the other hand, Nikon is clearly the challenger here.

But I agree with you, only future will tell whether Nikon picked the right price point or not.

You are saying that you understand their pricing policy, I understand too why they might have done it, but I strongly believe that they have made their biggest mistake so far with this.

The only reason why it migth not be a mistake is if they are facing some production issues that prevent them from building too many D3x anyway.

Cheers,
Bernard
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NikosR
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2008, 08:28:11 AM »
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I don't think they are having any production issues but then that's only my uneducated guess.

I believe the proof of the pudding will be based on the following two things:

1. Market perception of D3x IQ (since the rest is given). Does it noticeably surpass the 1Ds, the 5DII and the Sony? Does it challenge low-end MF?
2. Time and price of D700x introduction (that will indirectly also give an answer to your speculation about production issues).
« Last Edit: December 01, 2008, 08:29:23 AM by NikosR » Logged

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