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Author Topic: Sony NEX system - Full-frame too on the way ?  (Read 25185 times)
BJL
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« Reply #60 on: July 27, 2010, 04:50:34 AM »
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Thom Hogan said on July 26 at his site http://www.bythom.com/ that Sony Semiconductor is likely to discontinue 35m format ("FX" in Nikon-speak) sensors, because Thom's claimed inside sources say that "high management in Sony is saying that full-frame cameras and sensors aren't bringing the payback necessary to make them long-term profitable."

Combining this with repeated reports that Sony's DSLR division has not yet attained profitability hints that maybe the future for Sony (like Panasonic and Samsung) with interchangeable lens systems is the far higher sales volume and revenues of mirror-less digital cameras with "mainstream-sized" sensors; sensors that can be fabbed without the extra cost barrier of stitching.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2010, 07:46:18 AM by BJL » Logged
aaykay
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« Reply #61 on: July 29, 2010, 12:37:59 PM »
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Quote from: BJL
Thom Hogan said on July 26 at his site http://www.bythom.com/ that Sony Semiconductor is likely to discontinue 35m format ("FX" in Nikon-speak) sensors, because Thom's claimed inside sources say that "high management in Sony is saying that full-frame cameras and sensors aren't bringing the payback necessary to make them long-term profitable."


The general impression I got about the Thom "rumor" is that he has gotten bamboozled by someone with an agenda, who fed him what they wanted him to publish.  He himself may not have had any malicious intent. Unfortunately, due to the way the internet operates, even such poorly vetted "rumors" which had in some instances been elevated to being referred to as "news", too get a wide enough audience.

There were some creative after-the-fact statements that the true intent from the posting was to "help Sony" and things along those lines and that Sony users need to "petition Sony" to bring back the supposedly dying sensor line.  Absolute hogwash !  The poster clearly knows that any such "petition" will have precisely the opposite effect of the claim, since any potential buyer would just be scared away from purchasing any more equipment.

Essentially a VERY tricky and VERY  cleverly worded  underhanded trick played on Thom, IMO, intended to play on some real fears that some people have about Sony, regardless of what products they release.  For the past year or so, with Nikon not yet releasing their much awaited D700X (essentially a D700 with the D3X high resolution sensor in it), Sony has been capturing quite a few Nikon shooters with the A850, since an A850 and a couple of lenses could be obtained for a relative pittance, when compared to the $8000 for the D3X.  And this could be a way for Nikon to hit back at that specific target segment......and just used Thom as their instrument.
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CJL
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« Reply #62 on: July 29, 2010, 04:05:16 PM »
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Quote from: aaykay
Essentially a VERY tricky and VERY  cleverly worded  underhanded trick played on Thom, IMO, intended to play on some real fears that some people have about Sony, regardless of what products they release.


Sort of a Sony WMD scam, in other words...
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #63 on: July 29, 2010, 10:39:59 PM »
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Quote from: aaykay
The general impression I got about the Thom "rumor" is that he has gotten bamboozled by someone with an agenda, who fed him what they wanted him to publish.  He himself may not have had any malicious intent. Unfortunately, due to the way the internet operates, even such poorly vetted "rumors" which had in some instances been elevated to being referred to as "news", too get a wide enough audience.

There were some creative after-the-fact statements that the true intent from the posting was to "help Sony" and things along those lines and that Sony users need to "petition Sony" to bring back the supposedly dying sensor line.  Absolute hogwash !  The poster clearly knows that any such "petition" will have precisely the opposite effect of the claim, since any potential buyer would just be scared away from purchasing any more equipment.

Essentially a VERY tricky and VERY  cleverly worded  underhanded trick played on Thom, IMO, intended to play on some real fears that some people have about Sony, regardless of what products they release.  For the past year or so, with Nikon not yet releasing their much awaited D700X (essentially a D700 with the D3X high resolution sensor in it), Sony has been capturing quite a few Nikon shooters with the A850, since an A850 and a couple of lenses could be obtained for a relative pittance, when compared to the $8000 for the D3X.  And this could be a way for Nikon to hit back at that specific target segment......and just used Thom as their instrument.

What is the evidence trail that supports this?  He indicated multiple sources in his article and has traditionally refused to publish anything from a single source.
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aaykay
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« Reply #64 on: July 30, 2010, 11:51:42 AM »
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What is the evidence trail that supports this?  He indicated multiple sources in his article and has traditionally refused to publish anything from a single source.

And what is the evidence trail that supports all of his assertions about a competitor's future product plans ?  Remember, his assertions not only talked about Sony Semiconductor Kyushu corporation but also talked about an entirely different Sony division, which is the Sony Imaging group.  Both of these are core Japanese corporations based solely out of traditionalist Japan and are highly centralised in their decision making, with maybe the tier-2 level managers knowing what the longer term plans are.  Sony Imaging (along with Sony Semi-conductor) is (are) typically VERY tightlipped about everything they do, unless they themselves decide to release something.  It is not only highly improbable that Mr.Thom (a long term Nikon shooter, based out of America), was ever contacted by anyone (from senior management who had any knowledge of a future roadmap) from the Japan-based Sony Imaging, let alone the even more secretive Japan-based Sony Semi-conductor.

I rate this rumor's credibility as ZERO and the intent of the true source(s) of the "rumor" was damaging a competitor's reputation and sow doubts about its future, than something constructive.....even though they are craftily trying to paint a positive spin about the rumor's intent.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2010, 11:54:44 AM by aaykay » Logged
BJL
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« Reply #65 on: July 30, 2010, 02:53:32 PM »
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Quote from: aaykay
And what is the evidence trail that supports all of his assertions about a competitor's future product plans?
Thom Hogan, who is known to have contacts in the photographic industry and has a decent track record for previous claims of inside information (like the first correct rumor of a Nikon 35mm format DSLR), has put his name on these claims, and thus has to some extent put his reputation behind what he says. Not that this rules out his sources being wrong or even lying (he has been wrong on some rumors too) but his authorship at least makes it a higher grade of rumor than most of what flies around in photography forums.

So against, this, can you name any source or give any evidence whatsoever for your claim that he has been bamboozled?
Since you probably read it on a website, can you give us links to the sources? Preferably sources who, like Thom Hogan, give their name and are people we know something about, so we have some chance of assessing their credibility.

Or are you just summarizing the sentiment expressed in a large number of forum posts?
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cjmonty
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« Reply #66 on: July 30, 2010, 05:55:29 PM »
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I would drop all the wonderful (and very wishful) things on your laundry list for one good wide/normal prime pancake lens.  With f/2.0 or faster.  The 16mm, while fun, is too wide for most things and the corners are blurry something nasty.  

I still can't believe Sony chose an ultrawide for their only pancake prime.  

IMO other than that, surprisingly good cameras.  The rotating hi-res LCD is really a game-changer I think, it's the first viewfinder-free camera with a LiveView LCD that feels up to the task.  Love the waist level shooting-  Like an old TLR.
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #67 on: July 31, 2010, 10:18:34 AM »
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Quote from: cjmonty
I would drop all the wonderful (and very wishful) things on your laundry list for one good wide/normal prime pancake lens.  With f/2.0 or faster.  The 16mm, while fun, is too wide for most things and the corners are blurry something nasty.  

I still can't believe Sony chose an ultrawide for their only pancake prime.  

IMO other than that, surprisingly good cameras.  The rotating hi-res LCD is really a game-changer I think, it's the first viewfinder-free camera with a LiveView LCD that feels up to the task.  Love the waist level shooting-  Like an old TLR.

I would have picked one up if that 16mm had decent corners.  Just a ridiculously small setup.

The best thing about a twisty LCD (like the Nex or my G1) is it lets me move the camera from eye level without me needing to get that knee scoped.
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DarkPenguin
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« Reply #68 on: July 31, 2010, 10:47:16 AM »
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Quote from: aaykay
And what is the evidence trail that supports all of his assertions about a competitor's future product plans ?  Remember, his assertions not only talked about Sony Semiconductor Kyushu corporation but also talked about an entirely different Sony division, which is the Sony Imaging group.  Both of these are core Japanese corporations based solely out of traditionalist Japan and are highly centralised in their decision making, with maybe the tier-2 level managers knowing what the longer term plans are.  Sony Imaging (along with Sony Semi-conductor) is (are) typically VERY tightlipped about everything they do, unless they themselves decide to release something.  It is not only highly improbable that Mr.Thom (a long term Nikon shooter, based out of America), was ever contacted by anyone (from senior management who had any knowledge of a future roadmap) from the Japan-based Sony Imaging, let alone the even more secretive Japan-based Sony Semi-conductor.

I rate this rumor's credibility as ZERO and the intent of the true source(s) of the "rumor" was damaging a competitor's reputation and sow doubts about its future, than something constructive.....even though they are craftily trying to paint a positive spin about the rumor's intent.

Thom has built up credibility over the years.  Doesn't mean he's right but I don't expect wild rumors out of him.  How often has he been played?
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BernardLanguillier
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« Reply #69 on: August 03, 2010, 05:40:01 AM »
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Quote from: aaykay
The general impression I got about the Thom "rumor" is that he has gotten bamboozled by someone with an agenda, who fed him what they wanted him to publish.  He himself may not have had any malicious intent. Unfortunately, due to the way the internet operates, even such poorly vetted "rumors" which had in some instances been elevated to being referred to as "news", too get a wide enough audience.

Perhaps, on the other hand Sony has been known to put in place very bold cost reduction campains and it wouldn't be too surprising if they decided to rationalize their product lines in some BUs.

Nikon users would most probably be affected negatively by such a move. Sony DI hasn't managed to steal too much market share from Nikon, but their semi-conductor unit is a major supplier of Nikon, including for FF sensors...

Cheers,
Bernard
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A few images online here!
BJL
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« Reply #70 on: August 03, 2010, 10:30:02 AM »
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Quote from: BernardLanguillier
Nikon users would most probably be affected negatively by such a move ... [Sony's] semi-conductor unit is a major supplier of Nikon, including for FF sensors...
It depends on whether Nikon can extend its success with the "low resolution, high speed" sensor designs for the D3 and D700 series to good higher resolution sensors for the "X" series. My guess is that Nikon wants to bring its high-end [36x24mm] sensor design operations entirely in-house to have a USP, but if and when it can do that, I do not speculate.
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ziocan
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« Reply #71 on: August 03, 2010, 10:05:44 PM »
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It does not make a lot of sense to drop FF cameras, even for a company like Sony which is well known for dropping products that are not successful.
They have a growing line up of expensive FF lenses, which would become a very hard sell to amateurs who owns sub 1000$ bodies.
Those lenses are not exactly suitable for the Sony professional video cameras that support the alpha mount, since they suffer from the same problem of canon and nikon lenses which are not "cinema lenses" and cannot repeat follow focus reliably.
Therefore the question, if they drop FF and they do not source it from another factory, what are they going to do with all those lenses?
IMo, Sony needs a serious flagship product on order to keep the DSLR department looking decent.

As for thom hogan rumor, he is recognized as a no BS person, I normally tend to consider his view, yet I know that many times he has been wrong, even if in bona fede.
This time he does not exactly quote his sources.
The way he quotes them, is too vague for giving its the due credibility. I think if he cannot quote sources properly, he should have kept it for himself.

Hopefully he is wrong, it would be better for Nikon, Sony and also Canon user. I would hate to see FF development slowing down and going back to 8K cameras bodies only.


Anyway for what is worth, there are also rumors of the next FF Sony camera that it is due for beginning 2011, it would offer a new sensor technology and it has been tested on the MP count of 24 and 30+.
it was posted on the usual Sony Alpha rumors site, which has about the same succes rate than Thom Hogan.... actually a bit higher.
cheers!
« Last Edit: August 03, 2010, 10:22:20 PM by ziocan » Logged
BJL
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« Reply #72 on: August 04, 2010, 11:13:37 AM »
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It does not make a lot of sense to drop FF cameras ... They have a growing line up of expensive FF lenses, which would become a very hard sell to amateurs who owns sub 1000$ bodies.
Money already spent is not enough reason to keep spending more money if management judges that there is little prospect of adequate return on an such future spending. Think of all the other fine lens systems that have been orphaned over the last decade: the Zeiss lenses for the Contax 35mm and 645 systems; the Zeiss and Schneider lenses for Rollei/Hy6 medium format; the Leica, Olympus and Pentax lenses for 35mm formats SLR's, etc. (Looking at that list, Zeiss seems almost cursed in the SLR market!)

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... there are also rumors of the next FF Sony camera that it is due for beginning 2011, it would offer a new sensor technology and it has been tested on the MP count of 24 and 30+.
And the solid fact of a couple of new 35mm format lenses including one high end Zeiss-Sony 24/2, so the short term is not bleak. But finalizing and releasing products that are well into the development process is not inconsistent with a longer term plan to stop initiating further product developments beyond what is already in the pipe-line. To be optimistic, the time lag might be enough to lead to a change of plans if Sony's 36x24mm sensor sales and profitability improve.
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Fritzer
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« Reply #73 on: August 04, 2010, 01:15:05 PM »
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Quote from: BJL
"high management in Sony is saying that full-frame cameras and sensors aren't bringing the payback necessary to make them long-term profitable."

Sony is amateur market only, it surprises me they even bothered to make an FF camera in the first place.
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douglasf13
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« Reply #74 on: August 04, 2010, 01:28:09 PM »
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Sony is amateur market only, it surprises me they even bothered to make an FF camera in the first place.

  While not being professional in the sense of having something akin to CPS, Sony does provide many professional landscape, wedding, fine art and studio photographers with fullframe camera bodies.  As for "professional" build, the A900 certainly competes.
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Deep
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« Reply #75 on: August 04, 2010, 02:17:38 PM »
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While not being professional in the sense of having something akin to CPS, Sony does provide many professional landscape, wedding, fine art and studio photographers with fullframe camera bodies.  As for "professional" build, the A900 certainly competes.
Actually, I am thinking of getting a 35mm format system for specific, professional work and the Sony system is the one that appeals the most to me, by quite some way.

Don.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2010, 02:18:29 PM by Deep » Logged

Don
BJL
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« Reply #76 on: August 04, 2010, 02:47:47 PM »
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Quote from: douglasf13
While not being professional in the sense of having something akin to CPS, Sony does provide many professional landscape, wedding, fine art and studio photographers with fullframe camera bodies.  As for "professional" build, the A900 certainly competes.
That is about how I see it: Sony has some bodies and lenses of good enough quality for some kinds of professional usage, but lacks the breadth of choices (no fast lenses beyond 300mm for example), support and "user mindshare" to win adoption in many professional sectors. For example, AFAIK, no news organization uses anything other than Canon or Nikon, because they adopt one system, and choose a system that can best covers their wide range of needs.

Maybe this sort of more specialized high level system can be made viable (like Leica rangefinders and MF systems), maybe not. Wedding and portrait photography keeps coming up, I suppose because the practitioners are more often making individual gear choices, and it is easier for a smaller system to cover the range of lenses and accessories needed. But there is always the question of "what does it offer that is different from or better than Canon or Nikon?", to compensate for the advantages those two largest systems have from their economies of scale. Sensor based stabilization? Some Carl Zeiss connection in some lenses? Mirrorless, with better video than DSLR's offer?
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douglasf13
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« Reply #77 on: August 04, 2010, 05:57:38 PM »
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Quote from: BJL
But there is always the question of "what does it offer that is different from or better than Canon or Nikon?", to compensate for the advantages those two largest systems have from their economies of scale. Sensor based stabilization? Some Carl Zeiss connection in some lenses?

  Those are exactly the two reasons that drew me into the system, initially.  You make a good point about the word "professional."  Obviously, Sony isn't after any of the sports or news agency markets.  That has been sewn up for a long time.  However, "professional" photography is a broad term with many types.
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deejjjaaaa
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« Reply #78 on: August 04, 2010, 08:51:11 PM »
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Quote from: BJL
Think of all the other fine lens systems that have been orphaned over the last decade:... Pentax lenses for 35mm formats SLR's

Pentax ? 35mm, 645 and 67 can be mounted and used on current Pentax dSLR
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BJL
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« Reply #79 on: August 05, 2010, 04:04:47 PM »
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Quote from: deja
Pentax ? 35mm, 645 and 67 can be mounted and used on current Pentax dSLR
Yes: my phrasing was poor; I just meant that Pentax no longer makes any 35mm format [36x24mm] SLR's that use those lenses "as intended". Likewise, Sony's 35mm format lenses would still be usable on Sony's APS-C format DSLRs. My point was only that the existence of a good collection of 35mm format lenses is not a sufficient reason for Sony [or Pentax] to keep making 35mm format SLRs.

Aside: Pentax did announce its intention to make 35mm format DSLRs, using the same 6MP Phillips/Dalsa sensor as Contax used in its ill-fated DSLR, but then Pentax abandoned than plan, presumably because it was decided that it would not be profitable, and this decision was made despite Pentax having a fairly good 35mm format lens system.
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