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Author Topic: Economic Crisis  (Read 14593 times)
Isaac
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2013, 06:11:39 PM »
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There was this guy ...
Who?
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Slobodan Blagojevic
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2013, 06:19:47 PM »
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Who?

Are you genuinely interested or you just want to test my recollection or googling skills? Wink
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Slobodan

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Isaac
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« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2013, 06:31:13 PM »
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I wondered who you were talking about - I don't care that you don't have on the name on the tip of your tongue.
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Slobodan Blagojevic
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2013, 06:50:35 PM »
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David X. Li

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_X._Li
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Slobodan

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Isaac
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« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2013, 07:37:40 PM »
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Thanks.

I think the take-away is -- "In hindsight, ignoring those warnings looks foolhardy. But at the time, it was easy. Banks dismissed them, partly because the managers empowered to apply the brakes didn't understand the arguments between various arms of the quant universe. Besides, they were making too much money to stop."

Presumably you've come across The Big Short and Boomerang.

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Alan Klein
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« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2013, 10:17:31 PM »
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Easy money is what caused the problem apparently in Spain and certainly here in America.  In the recession of 2000-2001, the Fed lowered interest rates to 1% which drove the real estate market from 2000 to 2008 when the bubble busted. 

So what are doing now for the new recession of 2008?  The Fed lowered interest rates even more to effectively 0 percent and added printing more dollars to the tune of $45 billion a month for mortgages.  So we are creating a new bubble in real estate (and the stock market) that will also go bust.  Add to the deficit spending and debt this country is piling up, and we're mortgaging the rest of our economic future.  We never learn.
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graeme
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« Reply #26 on: July 19, 2013, 04:08:34 AM »
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Thanks for that link Slobodan - fascinating.

Graeme
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Slobodan Blagojevic
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« Reply #27 on: July 23, 2013, 05:13:44 PM »
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... I do think that it will come back to a working condition again... I don't think we'll slip too far before we recover...

Perhaps, but not very likely in our lifetime.

Just came across the following excerpt from the University of Chicago Magazine (emphasis mine):

Quote
Middle-class positions disappeared during the recession and they’re not coming back even as the economy adds jobs. About half of the 7.5 million American jobs that disappeared in the 2008 recession were middle-class positions, earning $38,000 to $68,000 per year. But of the 3.5 million jobs picked up since the recession ended in 2009, only 2 percent pay middle-class wages. Instead, nearly 70 percent of the economy’s job growth has been happening in lower-wage industries.
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Slobodan

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RSL
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« Reply #28 on: July 23, 2013, 05:45:39 PM »
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Care to venture a guess about why? Think the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act might have something to do with it? My third son and his partner own a specialized business that includes a call center. They have more than 60 employees. If the PPACA begins to be enforced they're going to have to consider either laying off enough people to get below 50 employees, or convert their employees into part-timers and keep their weekly time below 30 hours. If you were faced with this situation, would you hire more people? Would you expand?
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Slobodan Blagojevic
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« Reply #29 on: July 23, 2013, 06:14:28 PM »
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Care to venture a guess about why? Think the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act might have something to do with it?...

I am in the mood to dig out my old posts today. This one is from last November:

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Russ, you sound so, how shall I put it, hmmm... let's just say: senatorial.

Roman Senate, to be more precise. Or, to be even  more precise, like the Roman Senator known as Cato the Elder, a.k.a. Marcus Porcius Cato. He was known to insert, during his speeches in Senate, regardless of topic, his famous motto: "Carthage Must be Destroyed" (a city). No matter what he was talking about, he would find a way to insert those words.

Sounds you have the same issue with government, like Cato with Carthage. No matter what we talk about in these forums, global warming or global obesity, you somehow turn it anti-government Wink

 
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Slobodan

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Vladimirovich
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« Reply #30 on: July 23, 2013, 06:23:59 PM »
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Care to venture a guess about why? Think the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act might have something to do with it? My third son and his partner own a specialized business that includes a call center. They have more than 60 employees. If the PPACA begins to be enforced they're going to have to consider either laying off enough people to get below 50 employees, or convert their employees into part-timers and keep their weekly time below 30 hours. If you were faced with this situation, would you hire more people? Would you expand?

so those 60 people are making a middle class wages in that call center (before PPACA), huh  Cheesy ...
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AFairley
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« Reply #31 on: July 23, 2013, 06:43:01 PM »
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Care to venture a guess about why? Think the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act might have something to do with it? My third son and his partner own a specialized business that includes a call center. They have more than 60 employees. If the PPACA begins to be enforced they're going to have to consider either laying off enough people to get below 50 employees, or convert their employees into part-timers and keep their weekly time below 30 hours. If you were faced with this situation, would you hire more people? Would you expand?

Would I start thinking about giving my employees decent wages and benefits to start with?
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Vladimirovich
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« Reply #32 on: July 23, 2013, 07:54:10 PM »
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Would I start thinking about giving my employees decent wages and benefits to start with?

no, we shall cut federal pension/ret. benefits obligations, really.
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RSL
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« Reply #33 on: July 23, 2013, 07:59:57 PM »
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They all have decent wages. That's not the problem, and if you're familiar with the legislation you'll know wages aren't the problem.

Can't figure out how this kind of thing might affect the unemployment ratio? Think about it.
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RSL
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« Reply #34 on: July 23, 2013, 08:14:43 PM »
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I am in the mood to dig out my old posts today. This one is from last November:

Of course the government COULDN'T be a problem, could it, Slobodan? Check Detroit. I grew up in a suburb of Detroit. When I joined the Air Force in 1951 it was a beautiful city. Government couldn't have had anything to do with its demise, now could it?
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mezzoduomo
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« Reply #35 on: July 23, 2013, 08:36:34 PM »
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http://www.cato.org/events/end-near-its-going-be-awesome-how-going-broke-will-leave-america-richer-happier-more-secure

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Slobodan Blagojevic
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« Reply #36 on: July 23, 2013, 08:47:22 PM »
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Of course the government COULDN'T be a problem, could it, Slobodan?...

Is that the same incompetent, corruptible, mistake-prone, wasteful, malevolent government that, when it comes to national security, is suddenly competent, non-corruptible, unmistakable, benevolent? Wink
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Slobodan

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mezzoduomo
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« Reply #37 on: July 23, 2013, 10:08:58 PM »
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Is that the same incompetent, corruptible, mistake-prone, wasteful, malevolent government that, when it comes to national security, is suddenly competent, non-corruptible, unmistakable, benevolent? Wink

Some things are not all good, nor all bad. I certainly hope there are shades of grey in your BW photos, SLOBO!   Cheesy
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RSL
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« Reply #38 on: July 24, 2013, 09:44:49 AM »
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Is that the same incompetent, corruptible, mistake-prone, wasteful, malevolent government that, when it comes to national security, is suddenly competent, non-corruptible, unmistakable, benevolent? Wink

You're confusing the political cesspool with the national defense establishment, Slobodan. One problem we run into more and more often as time goes by is the problem posed by politicians without any military or national defense experience trying to make national defense decisions that are way outside their area of expertise. Fifty years ago the draft ensured that a majority of the people in our government understood first-hand what war is all about. Now they've been replaced by the sixties crowd.

When it comes to economics, our politicians have demonstrated again and again that they're incompetent, corruptible, mistake-prone, wasteful, and sometimes malevolent. But they've pretty much left defense to specialists. 9/11 resulted from one of the times when ignorant politicians intervened -- incompetently as we now realize.

There are flakes in every group of people, and the fact that Snowden even was hired demonstrates that not everybody in the NSA is competent. But on balance the military and our intelligence outfits are busting their butts to save yours, Slobodan.

Here's a thought: Most of the functions of the NSA necessarily are secret. But there's no reason why this kind of communications analysis needs to be secret. There's nothing illegal or threatening about having a computer track telephone connections, and there's no reason why this operation shouldn't have been set up somewhere outside the NSA. I'm sure every intelligence agency in the world was thoroughly aware that it existed and knew how it worked -- long before Snowden "revealed" it. Considering the easy availability of super computers I'd also be willing to bet that every even moderately advanced country out there has a similar program, and I'm sure they'd all be happy to tell our stupid "media" that they're "shocked. . . shocked" that ours exists.
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AFairley
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« Reply #39 on: July 24, 2013, 11:35:15 AM »
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They all have decent wages. That's not the problem, and if you're familiar with the legislation you'll know wages aren't the problem.

Can't figure out how this kind of thing might affect the unemployment ratio? Think about it.

Well, the answer seems to depend on whose propaganda one is listening to, a common problem these days where ideology is valued more highly than truth.  http://www.nbcnews.com/health/obamacare-wont-slash-workers-hours-report-finds-6C10732487#health/obamacare-wont-kill-jobs-slash-hours-report-finds-6C10732487
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